Gold probably will advance to $1,800 an ounce in 12 months on a negative outlook for the European economy and China’s real estate sector, according to Constantin Gurdgiev, an economist at Trinity College in Dublin.
“I can see a rather bullish scenario for gold in the short-to-medium term,” said Gurdgiev, who is also a non- executive member of the investment committee at GoldCore Ltd., a Dublin-based brokerage that sells and stores everything from quarter-ounce British Sovereigns to 400-ounce bars.
Bullion was little changed at $1,651 an ounce by 9:22 a.m. in London, for a 5.6 percent gain this year. The price may be driven higher by Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and a slowdown in China’s real-estate sector, Gurdgiev said in an interview in Moscow on April 13, while stressing that other scenarios are possible.
The global economy by 2014 may have started a cycle of growth accompanied by inflation, increasing demand for gold as a means of protecting wealth, pushing the price to more than $2,200 an ounce, Gurdgiev said.
“Heightened inflation prospects” will be driven by expectations of stronger demand for commodities and a large- scale liquidity withdrawal in Europe and Japan, according to Gurdgiev.
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