Bloomberg News

Treasury 10-Year Yields May Rise to 2.4%: Technical Analysis

April 03, 2012

Treasury 10-year yields may rise to 2.4 percent, the highest level since October, after staying above the 200-day moving average, CIBC World Markets Inc. said, citing trading patterns.

Treasury yields on March 14 advanced above the average for the first time since July and on March 20 touched 2.40 percent, the highest level since Oct. 28, after trading in a range from 1.8 percent to 2.1 percent for most of this year. Rates will probably climb after they failed to decline to their previous range, according to Kazuaki Oh’e, a debt salesman at the unit of Canada’s fifth-largest lender.

“Yields are more likely to test 2.4 percent again, rather than falling below” the 200-day moving average, he said.

Ten-year yields were little changed at 2.30 percent at 9:12 a.m. in Tokyo, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The 2 percent note due in February 2022 was at 97 11/32. The yield climbed 12 basis points, or 0.12 percentage point, yesterday. The average over the past decade is 3.86 percent.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.


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