Global corn production will expand 1.9 percent in 2012-13, trailing analysts’ estimates, according to a preliminary forecast by the International Grains Council.
World output will be a record 880 million metric tons in the season ending in June 2013 from 864 million tons a year earlier, Amy Reynolds, an IGC economist, said in a presentation yesterday in London. Rabobank International estimates the crop at 898.6 million tons and Macquarie Group Ltd. forecasts 895 million tons.
“At this stage when the crop isn’t planted and weather conditions are unknown, this likely falls into the realm of crystal-ball gazing,” Reynolds said by e-mail today. “It’s probably a bit early to be dissecting numbers too closely.”
Corn rose to a five-month high on March 13 amid signs of tightening supplies in the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter. The IGC will have a breakdown of corn production by country in its May report, Reynolds said.
Corn stockpiles will fall 3.2 percent to 122 million tons at the end of the season by June 2013, the IGC said. Macquarie’s corn-production estimate for 2012-13 includes a 37- million ton increase in U.S. production, said Christopher Gadd, an analyst at the bank.
“We also forecast production increases for Ukraine and Argentina in the 2012-13 season,” he said. “The increase in supplies in these major exporters will see a significant improvement in the surplus of grains available for exports.”
Wheat production in 2012-13 will total 680 million tons, down 15 million tons from the prior year, the IGC said in the presentation, matching its estimate on Feb. 23. Corn planting is expected to rise 0.6 percent globally in 2012-13 to a record 167 million hectares (413 million acres), the IGC said in its February report.
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