Bloomberg News

Euro May Weaken 6% to $1.259, SocGen Says: Technical Analysis

February 27, 2012

The euro may decline as much as 6 percent to $1.259 against the dollar should it fail to breach a key resistance level, Societe Generale SA said, citing technical indicators.

“We continue to think that the rise initiated at $1.2620 in January is corrective,” technical analysts Hugues Naka and Fabien Manac’h in Paris wrote in a research note based on data compiled by SocGen. The 17-nation common currency dropped to $1.2624 on Jan. 13, the weakest level since August 2010.

The euro weakened 0.3 percent to $1.3404 at 11:28 a.m. London time. It strengthened to $1.3487 on Feb. 24, the highest since Dec. 5, data compiled by Bloomberg shows.

“The upper end of the medium-term declining channel, which comes in at $1.3570 this week, should cap the upside and force euro-dollar to point back towards the intermediate downside target of $1.2590/$1.2620,” the SocGen analysts wrote.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support is where buy orders may be grouped, and resistance is a level where sell orders may be clustered.

To contact the reporter on this story: Keith Jenkins in London at Kjenkins3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Daniel Tilles at dtilles@bloomberg.net


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