Bloomberg News

Turkey 2011 Current-Account Gap Seen at 11.4% of GDP at Goldman

February 13, 2012

Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Turkey’s current-account deficit probably reached a record 11.4 percent of gross domestic product last year, according to the latest estimate by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The deficit was probably $77 billion in the year, according to an e-mailed report from Goldman Sachs economists including Ahmet Akarli yesterday. Turkey announces its balance of payments data for December at 10:00 a.m. today. The country probably ran a $6.6 billion deficit in the month, according to the median of nine estimates on Bloomberg.

Any significant moderation in Turkey’s current account is unlikely to last and the figure is likely to be an annualized 9.5 percent of GDP in the second half of 2012 before contracting to about 8.5 percent by year-end, Akarli said.

“A lasting current-account improvement looks unlikely, given procyclical economic policy, deteriorating terms of trade and accelerating capital inflows,” the report said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Benjamin Harvey in Istanbul at bharvey11@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Bentley at mbentley3@bloomberg.net


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