Panetta Seeks Afghan Combat End in 2013 With France Back in Line
February 06, 2012, 6:39 AM ESTBy Viola Gienger
Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta will seek to pull France back in line today and prevent the 50- nation NATO-led coalition in Afghanistan from fracturing by offering a plan to end the coalition’s primary combat role starting in mid-2013.
Attending his second Brussels meeting of NATO defense ministers since taking office in July, Panetta told reporters traveling with him that the coalition would shift primarily to advising Afghan forces by the end of 2013.
The decision establishes a milestone for leaders of the North American Treaty Organization, who in Lisbon in 2010 called for transferring security responsibility nationwide to Afghan forces by the end of 2014.
“We’ll still be very much engaged in helping them as we move into 2014,” Panetta said yesterday. “It’s not going to be the kind of formal combat role that we’re involved in now.”
The timetable may help resolve a rift in the coalition that opened last week when French President Nicolas Sarkozy said his nation would withdraw its troops a year earlier than the goal set in Lisbon. Panetta signaled yesterday that he would try to herd France back in line.
In, Out Together
“The main point I want to make is you’ve got to stick to the Lisbon strategy,” Panetta said. “We all went in together, and we’ll all go out together.”
While the U.K. and Italy have responded publicly to Sarkozy’s announcement by pledging to stay in Afghanistan through 2014, the coalition rift will be seen as a “smashing propaganda victory” for the Taliban, said Jeffrey Lightfoot, the deputy director of the international security program at the Atlantic Council policy group in Washington.
“We’ve seen over the last year a steady drumbeat of spectacular attacks that win the headlines and undermine the narrative of progress that’s been put forward by NATO and our political leaders,” Lightfoot said. The resulting talk of an accelerated timetable “will only give fodder to the idea that it’s easy to target the Europeans and try to undermine the cohesiveness of the coalition.”
The 2013 goal echoes the transition in Iraq in August 2010, when the U.S. stepped back from a lead combat role to advise Iraqi security forces for 19 months until the last of the remaining 50,000 American troops left two months ago. Since then, concerns have mounted that ethnic and sectarian violence and political tensions may be increasing.
Republican Criticism
The U.S. still plans to keep some troops in Afghanistan after 2014 to conduct counter-terrorism missions and advise Afghan forces, Panetta said.
Panetta’s announcement spurred criticism from U.S. Representative Howard P. “Buck” McKeon, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. He said the decision was premature because it’s too early to know whether Afghan forces will successfully maintain control of the areas where they’ve recently taken the lead.
“While there have certainly been improvements in the Afghan security forces’ capabilities, the committee has not seen a single assessment by our commanders that indicates they have any confidence in such a swift transition,” McKeon of California said.
A clear schedule also may give Panetta and military leaders including Marine General John Allen, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, leeway to argue that the withdrawal of U.S. troops should be slowed in the meantime to prevent deterioration.
‘A Critical Year’
The plan for 2013 makes it “a critical year and therefore will demand that we have a strong presence there in order to make sure that the gains that we’ve made up to that point are continued,” Panetta said.
The U.S. and its NATO partners would have to retain a significant advising force through 2014 prepared for combat to support the Afghan army and police as necessary, according to a U.S. defense official traveling with Panetta, who was authorized to speak to reporters only on condition of anonymity.
The U.S. has about 89,000 troops on the ground in Afghanistan, after withdrawing 10,000 last year. It plans to remove at least 23,000 more by September, and other nations are reducing their numbers as well.
As justification for the transition plan, Panetta cited a weakened Taliban, lower levels of violence and improved security in almost every area of Afghanistan.
“The Taliban has not been able to regain any of the lost territory,” Panetta said. “They haven’t conducted a successful operation to regain territory. We continue to weaken them.”
Army, Police
The Afghan army and police also are performing better, the defense chief said. The forces are taking over security in the second group of areas that will bring more than half of the population under Afghan control.
Allen “strongly feels things are on track to meet the goals that were laid out in Lisbon,” Panetta said.
Such assessments contradict the findings of a December U.S. national intelligence estimate that cast doubt on how rapid and extensive the progress would be.
Panetta acknowledged that the coalition still must weaken the Taliban further, heighten the Afghan army’s skills and operations and improve governance, he said.
The final year prior to the end of 2014 “then becomes a year of consolidating the transition and making sure that those gains are in fact held so we can move to a more enduring presence beyond 2014,” Panetta said.
Caught by Surprise
Sarkozy’s announcement caught even some members of his own government by surprise, and coalition partners are seeking to resolve any differences in Brussels, the U.S. official said. France may still agree to contribute forces to an advise-and- assist mission after 2013, the U.S. defense official said.
Concerns over the cost of sustaining the Afghan security forces after 2014 also will prompt talks at the NATO meeting, including whether to pare the size of the forces over time to make them more affordable, the official said.
Some nations in the coalition have balked at the estimated cost of $4 billion to $6 billion a year to bolster the Afghan government’s limited finances. The current goal is to build the force to a combined 350,000 army and police personnel.
“The key there is to have a sufficient and sustainable force that will be there for the future,” Panetta said, without specifying the size. “In many ways, the funding is going to largely determine what kind of force we can sustain for the future.”
The planned number may decrease in the future as the insurgency wanes and Afghan forces consolidate their control, the U.S. defense official said, declining to say what size is being considered.
The U.S. is seeking to persuade other nations, including some not participating in the war-fighting coalition, to contribute a combined 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) a year, the official said.
Panetta said the U.S. will appeal to Arab nations, Japan and South Korea among others to help.
--Editors: John Walcott, Larry Liebert
To contact the reporter on this story: Viola Gienger in Washington at vgienger@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Walcott at jwalcott9@bloomberg.net
