Putin May Face Communist in Presidential Run-Off, Polls Show
January 30, 2012, 2:48 AM ESTBy Henry Meyer
(Adds analyst’s comment starting in fourth paragraph.)
Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin may face a presidential run-off in March against Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov as his support fell for the first time since last month, according to two opinion polls.
Putin, who needs more than half the vote on March 4 to avoid a second round, will get 49 percent, according to the Jan. 21-22 survey of 1,600 people by the state-run All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion, known as VTsIOM. He will receive 44 percent, according to a Jan. 21-22 poll of 3,000 people by the Public Opinion Foundation, known by its Russian acronym, FOM.
The Russian leader, 59, who suffered a slide in popularity in recent years, is facing the biggest challenge to his rule since he came to power 12 years ago after mass protests sparked by allegations of fraud in Dec. 4 legislative polls. The opposition plan their next major rally in Moscow on Feb. 4.
“The Kremlin will do everything to ensure Putin wins in the first round,” Stanislav Belkovsky, director of the Moscow- based Institute for National Strategy, said by telephone today. “But the situation is getting out of the Kremlin’s control.”
Nationalist Support
Putin’s voter support is as low as 37 percent, according to an opinion poll by the independent Levada Center, which surveyed 1,600 people on Jan. 20-23 and had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. Zyuganov would get 8 percent according to Levada and 11 percent according to VTsIOM and FOM.
The prime minister, whose election campaign has focused on shoring up nationalist support by promising to crack down on illegal immigration and using anti-U.S. rhetoric, won’t succeed in broadening his electoral base, said Belkovsky.
“The people who are swayed by this rhetoric are already Putin supporters,” said the analyst, a former Kremlin adviser. “The rest of the electorate is tired of his rule.”
A Jan. 14-15 opinion poll by VTsIOM released a week ago showed Putin’s voter backing rising four percentage points to 52 percent, with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. His support climbed one percentage point to 45 percent in a Jan. 14-15 survey by FOM, which gave no margin of error.
The opposition accused Putin’s United Russia ruling party of inflating its score from 30 percent to about 50 percent in the Dec. 4 parliamentary elections. The prime minister, who was president from 2000 to 2008 and is seeking a new six-year term after four years of his protege, President Dmitry Medvedev, insists the legislative polls were fair.
--Editors: Zoe Schneeweiss, Alan Crosby
To contact the reporter on this story: Henry Meyer in Moscow at hmeyer4@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Balazs Penz at bpenz@bloomberg.net
