Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Rapeseed production globally will trail demand in the 2012-13 marketing year as dry weather in the European Union and Ukraine limits crop prospects, Oil World said.
Ukraine’s output will fall 19 percent to 1.13 million metric tons, the Hamburg-based oilseed researcher said today in a report. That’d be the lowest in five years, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show. EU production will gain 4.1 percent to 19.9 million tons after producers harvested the least in three years in 2011-12, Oil World said. The EU will have to import more to meet demand, according to the report.
“An unusually large share of the planted winter rapeseed did not germinate well and will be abandoned, primarily in Ukraine,” Oil World said today. Dry weather “will keep EU import requirements of rapeseed and canola very high in the 2012-13 season.”
Rapeseed futures on ICE Futures Canada in Winnipeg have declined 12 percent in the past year. Output in Canada, the single-largest grower of canola, will gain 3.8 percent to 14.7 million tons, Oil World said.
World production of rapeseed and canola, a low-acid variety of the oilseed, may total 61.5 million tons in the 2012-13 marketing year, up 3.4 percent from the prior 12 months, the first increase in three years, Oil World said. Because of small opening stockpiles, which are down 20 percent to 5.1 million tons, total supply of rapeseed will lag consumption, the researcher said.
“Considering the current poor winter rapeseed crop conditions in Ukraine and the sizable decline in winter rapeseed plantings in the EU-27 as well as the prospective low world stocks of rapeseed and canola in June and July 2012, a further increase in Canadian canola production will be required to satisfy demand in 2012,” the researcher said.
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