Oil Near One-Week Low as Fuel Demand Slips to Lowest in 10 Years
January 20, 2012, 12:00 AM ESTBy Ben Sharples
Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Oil traded near a one-week low after gasoline stockpiles rose and consumption fell to the lowest in 10 years in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer.
Futures were little changed in New York after slipping 0.2 percent yesterday. While crude inventories declined, gasoline use dropped to the lowest since September 2001, and supplies of the motor fuel increased to the highest level in 10 months, according to a report yesterday from the Energy Department. U.S. demand for oil products in the latest four-week period was down 7.2 percent from a year ago, according to Societe Generale SA.
“This is an ominous sign for the U.S. economy,” Mike Wittner, head of oil market research at Societe Generale in New York, said in a report dated yesterday. “Gasoline fundamentals remain weak. The market is anticipating firmer future fundamentals due to Atlantic Basin refinery closures. We are skeptical.”
Oil for February delivery was at $100.50, up 11 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:53 a.m. Singapore time. The contract, which expires today, declined 20 cents yesterday to $100.39, the lowest settlement since Jan. 13. The more-active March contract advanced 27 cents to $100.81 today. Prices are 1.8 percent higher this week.
Brent oil for March settlement was at $111.98 a barrel, up 43 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract’s premium to West Texas Intermediate futures was at $11.17, compared with $11.01 yesterday and a record $27.88 on Oct. 14.
Fuel Consumption
Hovensa LLC said this week it will shut its St. Croix refinery in the U.S. Virgin Islands by mid-February because of a downturn in fuel demand. The 350,000 barrel a day plant is the largest plant to shut in at least a decade because of a downturn in fuel demand and increased international competition.
U.S. gasoline consumption dropped 2.2 percent to 8 million barrels a day last week, the lowest since the week ended Sept. 21, 2001, when it slid to 7.8 million barrels, according to data from the Energy Department. Motor fuel stockpiles rose 3.72 million barrels last week to 227.5 million, the highest since the week ended March 4. They were forecast to rise 2.35 million barrels in a Bloomberg News survey.
Crude inventories declined 3.44 million barrels last week, the Energy Department data showed. They were estimated to climb 3 million barrels, according to the median of 12 analyst estimates in the Bloomberg News survey. Distillate supplies, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 438,000 barrels compared with a projected gain of 1.375 million barrels.
U.S. imports fell 17 percent to 8.3 million barrels a day, the lowest since the week of Dec. 16, according to the Energy Department report. Refineries ran at 83.7 percent utilization during the week, the lowest since the week of Nov. 4, the data showed.
‘Bearish Bias’
“Prices sold off on weak refinery utilization and import demand,” according to a report from The Schork Group Inc., energy analysts based in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “We are not feeling bullish after the DOE data and maintain our bearish bias.”
Refinery closures worldwide by the middle of the year, coupled with increased crude production from Libya, will lead to a “better-supplied oil market” in the Atlantic Basin, Olivier Jakob, managing director of Petromatrix GmbH, said in a report yesterday. The basin, which includes northwest Europe and the U.S., will have 3 million barrels a day more as Libya resumes pumping 1.2 million barrels and refinery halts remove 1.8 million barrels a day of crude processing capacity, he said.
Crude may rise next week on speculation an economic recovery in the U.S., the world’s top oil consumer, will boost demand, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
Eighteen of 40 analysts, or 45 percent, forecast oil will advance through Jan. 27. Fifteen respondents, or 38 percent, predicted prices will drop and seven estimated there will be little change. Last week, 50 percent of surveyed analysts expected a decline.
--Editors: Christian Schmollinger, Paul Gordon
To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in Singapore at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net
