Bloomberg News

U.S. East Coast to Remain Warm Until Cool Arrives Late in Week

January 09, 2012

Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Much of the northern U.S. and East Coast is expected to be warmer than normal before turning colder this weekend, according to forecasters.

Temperatures in the region may be 5 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit (2.8 to 7.8 Celsius) above normal ahead of the cold, MDA EarthSat Weather of Gaithersburg, Maryland, said today.

“The chill that arrives late-week in the Midwest will push into the East by the weekend and should get some reinforcing cold push from the North,” MDA said.

Traders use long-range temperature predictions to gauge energy use and market fluctuations. Hot or cold weather can increase demand for heating and cooling.

High temperatures are forecast to reach into the low 50s later this week in New York and Philadelphia, according to the National Weather Service. Boston’s highs will be in the 40s.

Heating degree-days values across the U.S. are expected to be 155 for the week, or 54 lower than normal and 85 below last year, according to data from the Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland.

The values are calculated by subtracting the daily average temperature from a base of 65 degrees to show energy demand. Higher values mean cooler weather and more energy being used to heat homes and businesses.

The natural gas-weighted value for the mid-Atlantic, including New York, is 187, or 74 below normal and 103 lower than last year, according to the climate center.

Falling Temperatures

In a 6- to 10-day forecast covering Jan. 14 to Jan. 18, MDA predicts temperatures along the East Coast will fall 3 to 4 degrees below normal.

Temperatures may drop 6 degrees below normal from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley and western New Jersey, according to the 6- to 10-day outlook from David Salmon, a meteorologist with Weather Derivatives in Belton, Missouri.

Commodity Weather Group LLC President Matt Rogers forecasts the dip along the East Coast will be about 3 degrees below normal during the period.

By Jan. 19, more seasonal temperatures are predicted for the East Coast, while warmer-than-normal weather is expected across the southern half of the U.S. from California to Georgia, according to Rogers.

“Cold air supply is expected to be impressive across Canada, especially into Calgary at times, but the capability to share that with the U.S. is limiting and usually brief,” Rogers said in a note to clients.

MDA predicts temperatures across Alberta could drop 15 degrees or more below normal, according to the company’s 11- to 15-day outlook. The Northeast is forecast to be more seasonal in that time period.

Weather Derivatives doesn’t issue an 11- to 15-day forecast.

The normal average temperature in New York for Jan. 17 is about 33 degrees, according to MDA. The average is 29 in Boston, 24 in Chicago, 43 in Atlanta, 42 in Seattle, 53 in Houston, and 55 in Burbank, California.

--Editors: Charlotte Porter, Bill Banker

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net


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