Bloomberg News

Polish Output Growth Quickens in November, Exceeds Forecasts

December 20, 2011

(Updates with government adviser’s comments in third paragraph, zloty, bonds in fifth.)

Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Polish industrial-output growth unexpectedly accelerated in November as the weak zloty boosted export income and favorable weather conditions allowed companies to continue infrastructure investments.

Production rose 8.7 percent from a year ago, after increasing 6.5 percent in October, the Central Statistical Office in Warsaw said today. That compares with a 5.7 percent median estimate of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Output rose 0.7 percent on the month.

“This is an impressive result, especially when you look at manufacturing,” Dariusz Filar, a member of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s council of economic advisers, said today on TVN CNBC. “It means economic growth should be close to 4 percent in the fourth quarter and we can be calm about the Finance Ministry’s forecast of 2.5 percent for next year.”

The economy expanded 4.2 percent in the third quarter as investments accelerated and a weaker zloty helped boost exports. While the government reduced its 2012 growth forecast to 2.5 percent earlier this month from its previous estimate of 4 percent, faster-than-expected production gains suggest the European Union’s largest eastern economy may resist the slowdown spreading in the euro area, the country’s main trading partner.

Good Weather

The zloty gained 0.2 percent to 4.4886 per euro at 2:11 p.m. in Warsaw, unchanged from its level before the data were released. Two-year Treasury bond yields rose 2 basis points to 4.89 percent.

“Good weather conditions have already helped Polish road construction and could also influence November’s industrial output as infrastructure investments kept going,” Jaroslaw Janecki, chief economist at Societe Generale in Warsaw, said by phone before the release.

Producer prices, an early indicator of inflationary trends, rose 8.9 in November from a year earlier, compared with 8.5 percent in October, the statistics office said in a separate report. The median forecast of 22 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for an increase of 8.6 percent. Producer prices increased 0.7 percent from the previous month.

--With assistance from Barbara Sladkowska in Warsaw. Editors: Alan Crosby, David McQuaid

To contact the reporters on this story: Monika Rozlal in Warsaw at; Katya Andrusz in Warsaw at

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Balazs Penz at

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