Bloomberg News

Iron Ore Price Forecasts From 2012 Raised by Goldman on Brazil

December 15, 2011

Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia Pty raised its forecasts for iron ore prices from 2012 to 2015 on concern supplies from Brazil, the world’s second-biggest exporter, will be lower than expected.

The price of ore delivered to China from Australia, the biggest shipper of the steelmaking raw material, will average $150 a metric ton next year, up from a forecast of $140 a ton, Malcolm Southwood, a Melbourne-based analyst for Goldman Sachs, said in a report dated yesterday.

It also raised its 2013 forecast by 38 percent to $165 a ton, its 2014 estimate 50 percent to $150 a ton and its 2015 prediction 60 percent to $120 a ton.

Goldman cited “substantial delays” to new projects and expansions in Brazil, resulting in its estimate for exports in 2015 from the country being slashed by 150 million tons to 447 million tons. The export market is likely to remain in deficit in 2012 and 2013 before switching to a “modest notional surplus” the following year, Goldman said.

Iron ore for delivery to the port of Tianjin in China, a benchmark for Asia, fell 1.8 percent to $134.80 a ton yesterday, according to The Steel Index.

--Editors: Alex Devine, Amanda Jordan

To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Riseborough in London at jriseborough@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Viljoen at jviljoen@bloomberg.net


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