Bloomberg News

IEA Says More Sanctions on Iran May Push Crude Prices Higher

December 13, 2011

Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Tougher international sanctions on Iran may lead to higher global crude prices and a decrease in output capacity for OPEC’s second-largest oil producer, the International Energy Agency said.

Iran’s production capacity will decline by 890,000 barrels a day to less than 3 million barrels a day by 2016 if the European Union bans oil imports from the Persian state, the Paris-based agency said in a report released today.

The EU added 180 Iranian officials and companies to a blacklist earlier this month to intensify pressure on Iran over its nuclear program, after the U.S. imposed stiffer penalties in November. The bloc is still discussing a possible halt to purchases of crude from Iran, the world’s third-largest oil exporter. The Gulf nation denies it is seeking technology to build nuclear weapons.

“Given already very low European crude inventories, a spate of precautionary buying and escalating tensions surrounding the Iranian issue could sustain prompt prices at levels higher than otherwise, amid the growing concerns about the euro zone and weaker global economic activity for 2012,” the IEA said.

Additional sanctions on Iran would “likely” mean refiners in the Mediterranean region would have to pay higher prices for replacement crude from other producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, the agency said.

“Saudi spare capacity may not be a precise match for the significant volumes of Iranian Heavy crude involved,” it said of the oil grade. Mediterranean refiners have started “to enquire about extra cargoes of Arab Light, the closest quality match for Iranian Heavy, although much of current Saudi spare capacity may instead be held in the form of less suitable Arab Medium or Arab Heavy,” it said.

Oil is Iran’s main source of income, supplying more than 50 percent of the national budget, according to International Monetary Fund figures. Iran pumped an average of 3.6 million barrels a day last month, a Bloomberg survey showed.

--Editors: Bruce Stanley, John Buckley

BI AME NI CMD NI CMDMARKET NI CRUDE NI EM NI OPEC NI CRUDE NI OIL NI OILMARKET NI GASMARKET NI GAS NI NRG NI NRGMARKET NI IRAN NI EUROPE NI US NI NUK NI GASOLINE NI REF NI REFOUT NI GEN NI POL NI LAW NI ECO NI WAR

#<812878.6947494.2.1.95.14779.25># -0- Dec/13/2011 09:00 GMT

To contact the reporter on this story: Nayla Razzouk in Dubai at nrazzouk2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephen Voss at sev@bloomberg.net


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