Bloomberg News

Dollar Index May Decline to One-Month Low: Technical Analysis

December 06, 2011

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The Dollar Index is set to break support lines and may fall to a one-month low, Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.

IntercontinentalExchange Inc.’s index, which tracks the greenback versus those of six major U.S. trading partners, closed yesterday 0.4 percent higher than its 20-day average of 78.295 and has been above Nov. 30’s intraday low of 77.923.

“A downward push is likely to be deep” once the gauge drops past these levels, said Takuya Kawabata, a researcher in Tokyo at a unit of Japan’s largest currency margin company.

The Dollar Index may then fall to 77.213, which is the 50 percent retracement level from a Nov. 25 high to an Oct. 27 low, Kawabata said, citing the daily Fibonacci chart. If the index slides below that, it’s likely to decline to the 61.8 percent retracement level of 76.626, he said, the lowest since Nov. 9.

The Dollar Index lost 0.1 percent to 78.605 yesterday.

Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break above resistance, or below support, indicates it may move to the next level. Support refers to an area where buy orders may cluster. Resistance is where there may be orders to sell.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

--Editors: Nate Hosoda, Garfield Reynolds

To contact the reporter on this story: Masaki Kondo in Singapore at mkondo3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rocky Swift at rswift5@bloomberg.net


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