(Updates with export estimate in second paragraph.)

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Sugar exports from India, the world’s second-biggest producer after Brazil, may fall in the current season from the previous period, according to Czarnikow Group Ltd.

Shipments in the 2011-12 year that started in October are unlikely to top last season’s 3 million metric tons, Toby Cohen, a director at the London-based broker and researcher, said at a conference in the city today.

“We would need to see a very strong crop” in India for exports to rise above the 2010-11 level, he said.

Raw sugar fell 9.1 percent over the past month in New York trading on speculation India’s exports would increase. The nation has already allowed 1 million tons of shipments and may permit another million, Cohen said.

Exports are unlikely to reach market expectations of 4 million tons, he said.

--Editors: Dan Weeks, Sharon Lindores.

To contact the reporter on this story: Isis Almeida in London at ialmeida3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net