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Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Australian wheat exports are forecast to climb 3.8 percent in 2011-12, the International Grains Council said, raising its outlook for shipments. The estimate for U.S. exports was cut.
Australia is expected to ship 19.2 million metric tons of wheat, compared with an October forecast for shipments to be little changed from last year’s 18.5 million tons, the London- based IGC said in an e-mailed report today.
The country is forecast to be the world’s third-biggest wheat shipper this season behind the U.S. and Russia, after harvesting a record crop of the grain last year. Wheat futures have dropped 13 percent in Chicago in the past 12 months amid expectations for increased world supply.
“Heavy supplies of wheat among strong export competition, including for new crop grain out of Argentina and Australia, mostly reduced free-on-board values,” the council said. “Import demand appears strong in a wide range of countries, aided by competitive pricing in the major exporters.”
Australian wheat production in the year through June 2012 is forecast to slip to 26.2 million tons from 27.9 million tons in 2010-11, the IGC said.
U.S. wheat exports will slide to 26 million tons in 2011-12 from 35.7 million tons a year earlier, the council said, cutting its forecast by 1 million tons from a month ago.
The outlook for Russian wheat exports was kept unchanged at 20 million tons, as was the forecast for Argentina’s wheat shipments at 7.8 million tons.
Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat importer, will buy 10.5 million tons of grain in international markets in 2011-12, the IGC estimates, up 100,000 tons from the previous year and 200,000 higher than last month’s outlook.
--Editors: John Deane, Dan Weeks
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