Bloomberg News

Oil May Fall Next Week on European Debt Concern, Survey Shows

November 01, 2011

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Oil may fall next week on concern that European leaders’ plans to fight the debt-crisis may provide limited relief, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Crude prices may drop from the highest level in almost three months as nations from Greece to Italy remain under pressure to restore fiscal order. European leaders reached an agreement this week to expand a bailout fund and persuaded bondholders to accept 50 percent writedowns on Greek debt.

“There’s too much optimism surrounding the European debt- plan resolution,” John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy, said in a telephone interview.

U.S. President Barack Obama said yesterday that European leaders took an “important first step” in resolving the crisis. He will meet other leaders of the Group of 20 industrialized nations Nov. 3 and 4 in Cannes, France.

Fourteen of 29 analysts, or 48 percent, forecast oil will decline through Nov. 4. Six, or 21 percent, predicted a gain, and nine said there will be little change. Last week, 50 percent of the surveyed analysts projected a drop.

Front-month crude oil futures have gained $6.18, or 7 percent, to $93.58 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday’s settlement was the highest closing price since Aug. 1 on the Nymex. Futures have risen 2.4 percent this year.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 47 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.

--With assistance from Ann Koh and Yee Kai Pin in Singapore, Winnie Zhu in Shanghai, Grant Smith in London, James G. Neuger in Brussels and Simon Kennedy in Paris. Editors: Margot Habiby, Dan Stets

To contact the reporter on this story: Justin Doom in New York at jdoom1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net


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