Bloomberg News

Disturbance in Southeast Gulf has 30% Chance of Developing

October 17, 2011

(Updates with latest weather outlook in second paragraph.)

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- An area of showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico has a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next 48 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The disturbance is well-removed from a low-pressure area near the north coast of the Yucatan peninsula, the Miami-based hurricane center said in a weather outlook before 8 p.m. East Coast time. It may develop tomorrow before conditions become less conducive to cyclones forming, according to the outlook.

The center lowered the area’s chance of forming to 30 percent, down from 60 percent, earlier today. The disturbance is moving north and is forecast to drop heavy rain over southern Florida and western Cuba, the center said.

Almost 10 inches (25 centimeters) of rain fell on Key West over the weekend, while Miami received 3.4 inches, said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground in Ann Arbor, Michigan. He said the system will turn northeast into the west coast of Florida late tomorrow.

--With assistance from Lynn Doan in San Francisco. Editors: Alexander Kwiatkowski, Christian Schmollinger

To contact the reporter on this story: Charlotte Porter in New York at

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at

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