Bloomberg News

S&P 500 May Drop 42% to 700, Nomura’s Bob Janjuah Predicts

October 14, 2011

(Updates to add previous predictions starting in second paragraph.)

Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may fall as much as 42 percent, according to Bob Janjuah, Nomura Holdings Inc.’s global head of tactical asset allocation.

Janjuah, who predicted in March 2009 the rally that began that month would reverse and the S&P 500 would fall as low as 500, said in a Bloomberg television interview today that the next two to three weeks may see “another risk-off phase.” The benchmark index for American equities may slip as low as 700 in 2012, he wrote in a report on Oct. 3.

The forecast is 51 percent below the average projection from four Wall Street strategists tracked by Bloomberg. U.S. stock futures rose today, indicating the S&P 500 may extend its longest streak of weekly gains in three months.

Janjuah, then a strategist for Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, said in an e-mail dated March 31, 2009, that the S&P 500 might fall to between 500 and 550 that year, from just above 800 at the time. Instead, the index climbed more than 70 percent through the end of April 2011, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

--Editors: Chris Nagi, Will Hadfield

To contact the reporters on this story: Deborah Hyde in London at; Corinne Gretler in Zurich at

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Will Hadfield at

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