Bloomberg News

Turkish Inflation Rate Probably Fell in September, Survey Shows

September 30, 2011

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Turkish inflation probably slowed in September as food prices moderated, an effect the central bank says will prove temporary.

The rate may fall to 6 percent from 6.7 percent in August, according to the median estimate of six economists in a Bloomberg survey. Forecasts ranged from 6.2 percent to 5.8 percent. The statistics agency in Ankara will release the data at 10 a.m. local time Oct. 3.

Inflation is likely to pick up again after September and accelerate toward the end of the year, central bank Governor Erdem Basci said today. The lira currency fell 29 percent against the dollar in the year to September, driving up the price of imported goods and fuel.

Even if the main rate does fall, “we expect core inflation may deteriorate visibly,” Nilufer Sezgin, an economist for Ekspres Invest in Istanbul, said in an e-mailed report. “Food prices can be very volatile.”

The cost of groceries jumped 4.7 percent in the month in September last year, when prices overall rose 1.2 percent. The rate of core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, rose to 6.2 percent in August from 3.2 percent in January.

Consumer-price growth may accelerate to 8.5 percent by the end of this year, compared with an official target of 5.5 percent, the International Monetary Fund said Sept. 22. There’s “a high chance” that the bank will meet its 2012 goal of 5 percent, Basci said today.

--Editors: Karl Maier, Andrew Atkinson

To contact the reporter on this story: Steve Bryant in Ankara at sbryant5@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew J. Barden at barden@bloomberg.net.


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