Bloomberg News

Oil May Fall Next Week on European Crisis Concerns: Survey

September 30, 2011

(Updates with closing price in sixth paragraph.)

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Oil may fall next week on concern that Europe’s economy is showing increasing signs of a slowdown as governments struggle to contain the fiscal crisis and avert a Greek default, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 17- nation euro area fell to 95 from a revised 98.4 in August, the European Commission in Brussels said yesterday. That’s the lowest since December 2009. In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, business sentiment decreased for a third month in September and investor confidence dropped to the lowest level in more than two and a half years.

Thirteen of 28 analysts, or 46 percent, forecast oil will decline through Oct. 7, while eight respondents, or 29 percent, predicted prices will increase. Seven estimated there will be little change. Last week, 55 percent of the surveyed analysts projected a drop.

“It will be another down week for oil, as sentiment worsens over the prospects of a looming recession,” John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy, said in an e-mail.

Total products supplied, averaged over four weeks, fell 0.6 percent to 19 million barrels a day in the period to Sept. 23, the fifth straight weekly decline, according to a U.S. Energy Department report on Sept. 28.

Crude oil for November delivery fell 65 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $79.20 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have fallen 13 percent this year.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 47 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.

--With assistance from Christian Schmollinger in Singapore, Grant Smith and Simone Meier in London, and Mark Shenk in New York. Editors: Richard Stubbe, David Marino

To contact the reporter on this story: Justin Doom in New York at jdoom1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net


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