Bloomberg News

Copper May Rise on Speculation Drop Was Overdone, Survey Shows

September 29, 2011

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Copper may rise on speculation this week’s drop was overdone, considering forecasts of a shortage.

Five of 11 analysts, investors and traders surveyed by Bloomberg, or 45 percent, said the metal will rise next week. Four predicted lower prices and two forecast little change. Copper for delivery in three months was down 2.2 percent this week at $7,195.25 a metric ton as of 3:23 p.m. yesterday on the London Metal Exchange.

Copper is down 24 percent this quarter, the most since the last three months of 2008. Copper supply will lag behind demand by 140,000 tons this year, Deutsche Bank AG forecasts.

The sell-off “has nothing whatsoever to do with the fundamentals of copper,” Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. in New York, said by e-mail.

The red bars on the attached chart are derived by subtracting bearish forecasts from bullish estimates, with readings below zero signaling the majority of respondents expect a decline. The green line shows the copper price. The chart goes to Sept. 23.

The weekly copper survey has forecast prices accurately in 75 of the past 156 weeks, or 48 percent of the time. China is the biggest copper buyer, followed by the U.S.

This week’s survey results: Bullish: 5 Bearish: 4 Hold: 2

--Editors: Claudia Carpenter, John Deane

To contact the reporter on this story: Agnieszka Troszkiewicz in London at

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at

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