Bloomberg News

Forecast Models Split Over U.S. East Coast Warming, Rogers Says

September 28, 2011

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Computer forecast models are split over how warm the U.S. East Coast will get next week, said Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland.

Rogers said he favors a model showing the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts to be about 3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.6 Celsius) cooler than average in his 6-to-10-day outlook. The Great Plains to northern Texas may warm, while the West Coast will probably be cooler.

“There is debate as to how much warming reaches the East Coast,” Rogers wrote in a note to clients. “We leaned toward the cooler East Coast solution today with slow warming arriving there by the 11 - 15 day.”

In his 11-to-15-day forecast, Rogers predicts the eastern half of the U.S. will be warmer than normal, accept for the extreme U.S. Southeast, which will be seasonal from Oct. 8 to Oct. 12. At the same time the U.S. West and Rocky Mountains will cool 3 to 5 degrees below normal.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center’s 6-to-10-day forecast for Oct. 3 to Oct. 7 calls for a 40 percent chance the U.S. Southeast will be cooler than normal. The Great Plains have a 50 to 70 percent chance of being warmer.

In the 8-to-14 day outlook, the climate center says there is a 50 percent chance the U.S. Great Lakes will be warmer than normal. Much of the U.S. Northeast has a 40 percent chance to warm.

--Editors: Dan Stets

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net


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