Bloomberg News

Commodities May Dip to Lowest Since November: Technical Analysis

September 15, 2011

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Commodities may drop to the lowest level since November after failing to breach key resistance levels, according to technical analysis by Commerzbank AG.

The S&P GSCI Total Return Index of 24 commodities has failed at the downtrend and 200-day moving average resistance at 5,090 and 5,150, London-based Karen Jones, head of fixed-income, commodity and currency technical analysis, wrote in a Sept. 14 report. A resistance level indicates a price at which sell orders may accumulate when a security is rising.

“We favor failure here and will maintain a negative bias,” Jones wrote. “Failure here should initiate a slide back to the August 19th low of 4,723 and then the August low at 4,530.”

Further losses could then take the index back to the 50 percent retracement of the 2010 and 2011 advance at 4,446, the report said. A fall below that level may spur a decline to the 4,268 November low and the 2009 and 2011 support line at 4,293, it said.

The index has risen 1.1 percent this year after advancing 9 percent last year. The gauge rose 0.6 percent to 4,996.400 yesterday.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

--Editors: Richard Dobson, Jarrett Banks

To contact the reporter on this story: Sungwoo Park in Seoul at spark47@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Richard Dobson at rdobson4@bloomberg.net


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