Bloomberg News

Goldman Sachs Cuts U.S. August Payroll Forecast to 25,000 Gain

September 01, 2011

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the slow pace of hiring recently in the U.S. led them to cut their August payroll forecast to a 25,000 gain.

The new estimate is down from a prior projection of a 50,000 increase, the economists said. Their forecast for the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.1 percent.

“The main reason is the accumulation of evidence of weak hiring in late July and August,” the economists, led by Jan Hatzius, wrote in a note to clients today. “The recent pickup in layoff announcements is a concern.”

Among the reports citing weak employment figures are the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey and its separate gauge of online help-wanted advertising for August, yesterday’s ADP Employer Services report that measures private payroll data and today’s employment component in the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index, the New York-based economists wrote.

The cut in the payrolls forecast contrasts with Moody’s Analytics Inc. economists, who raised their estimate today to an increase of 50,000 from a previous projection of a 30,000 gain.

--Editors: Carlos Torres, Vince Golle

To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net


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