Japan Stocks Top World as Factory Output Gains With Toyota
July 18, 2011, 6:40 AM EDTBy Anna Kitanaka and Lynn Thomasson
(Updates today’s trading in sixth paragraph.)
July 18 (Bloomberg) -- Equities in Japan are rising more than any other developed country on speculation earnings will improve as the country recovers from its strongest earthquake.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 2.9 percent since the start of June, posting the biggest increase among 24 developed countries in the MSCI World Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Toyota Motor Corp. climbed 4.9 percent since June 17 after saying production is rebounding faster than forecast. A measure of transport-equipment makers in the broader Topix index rose 3.6 percent as the government said June 29 that May industrial production expanded the most in 50 years.
Companies from Renesas Electronics Corp. to Seven & I Holdings Co. are reopening factories and stores faster than they initially planned, building confidence in earnings that analysts say will rise 17 percent in the next 12 months. The advance in Japanese equities pushed the Nikkei 225 within 4.7 percent of its level before the March 11 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster erased as much as $646 billion from Japanese shares.
“Corporate earnings are bouncing back,” Philip Poole, global head of macro and investment strategy at HSBC Global Asset Management, which oversees $443.5 billion, said in an interview from Hong Kong. “I’m actually quite positive on Japan. There’s evidence that construction continues to be quite supportive and reconstruction will obviously be a boost to growth.”
Economic Damage
Investors are returning after the Nikkei 225 lost 18 percent in three days after March 10, dragging valuations to 14 times estimated earnings, the lowest in two and a half years. The temblor and ensuing nuclear crisis caused electricity shortages and damage to factories and supply chains that will shave 3 percent off the economy in the quarter to June 30, according to the average estimate of 43 economists in a survey released June 8 by the government-affiliated Economic Planning Association.
Asian stocks fell for a third day after U.S. President Barack Obama said the government is “running out of time” in negotiating a deal to cut the fiscal deficit, hurting the outlook for Asian exporters. The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index dropped 0.6 percent to 473.19 as of 6:16 p.m. in Hong Kong. Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday.
Japanese equities are gaining as estimates show the economy may expand at an annual rate of 4.9 percent and 4.2 percent in last two quarters of 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Gross domestic product may have contracted in the three previous quarters, meeting the common definition of a recession. The Bank of Japan raised its economic assessment for a second month on July 12 as companies ramped up production.
CDS Prices Fall
The cost to insure Japan’s bonds against default has fallen amid signs of an improving outlook for the economy and earnings. Credit-default swaps on Japan’s sovereign debt for five years traded at 91.5 basis points on July 15 after surging to as much as 117.8 basis points after the March disaster, according to prices by CMA, which is owned by CME Group Inc. and compiles prices quoted by dealers in the privately negotiated market.
“In spite of the earthquake and global uncertainty, corporate Japan is in really good health,” said Dean Cashman, who beat 95 percent of his peers in the last five years managing the International Opportunities Funds -- Japan Dynamic Fund at Prudential Asset Management in Singapore. “For the first time in many years, you can say Japan is genuinely cheap. We’re quite confident that the trend in the earnings outlook looks solid.”
‘Market Being Rewarded’
Analysts are boosting profit forecasts after cutting them by 11 percent in two months following the March 11 earthquake. Income for companies in the Nikkei 225 may reach 636.74 yen a share in twelve months, a 7.5 percent increase from projections in May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“The supply-chain bottleneck is opening up and that has led to a pick-up in manufacturing activities, which is happening faster than people had expected,” said New York-based Nichola Noriega, international equity strategist at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees $354.9 billion. “The market is being rewarded for that. Production is coming back, exports are picking up, businesses are hiring again, and we’re seeing a shift in consumer sentiment, which is improving.”
Shares advanced as manufacturers said profits will surge 21 percent in the six months ending March 2012 as hiring picks up, the Bank of Japan said on July 1. Companies see the quarterly Tankan index of sentiment at large manufacturers improving to 2 in September, compared with minus 9 in June, the report showed. A negative number means pessimists outnumber optimists.
‘Faster Recovery’
“Damage from the earthquake to Japan’s economy was not as bad as initially expected,” said Hidehiro Tomioka, who helps oversee $1.5 billion at Manulife Asset Management (Japan) Ltd. in Tokyo. “The production recovery was faster or quicker than the market was expecting.”
Cashman, an investment director at Prudential, was a buyer of Seven & I, Japan’s biggest retailer by market value, which has almost erased its loss since March 10. The convenience store operator raised its profit estimate for the year ending February 2012 by 20 percent on July 7 as it reopened shops in Northern Japan and restarted supply chains.
Taiheiyo Cement Corp., the country’s largest producer of the building material by market value, has surged 39 percent since March 10, the biggest increase on the Nikkei 225, as investors bet earnings at construction companies will climb. Chiyoda Corp., which constructs and maintains industrial plants and receives nearly half its revenue domestically, jumped 36 percent since then. An index of builders rose 6.4 percent since the day before the disaster.
Toyota, Renesas
Toyota, the world’s biggest carmaker, said output at its North American operations will return to normal by September after overcoming supply chain disruptions, said Bob Carter, group vice president of U.S. sales, in an interview on June 16. Toyota, still 9.6 percent below its March 10 level, estimated in April that full production would resume in November.
Renesas, the world’s biggest maker of microcontrollers used in cars and mobile devices, said on June 10 that its supply of chips will be restored to normal levels by the end of September, a month earlier than planned. Renesas, which fell 31 percent in the three days after March 10, has risen 14 percent since the March 15 low.
Stocks rebounded as the yen retreated 1.7 percent from a postwar high of 78.89 per dollar on March 17 through July 11. A weaker yen boosts overseas sales at Japanese companies when repatriated into their home currency. The currency surged through last week after Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s threatened downgrades of the U.S.’s sovereign credit rating, boosting the yen’s safe-haven appeal.
Demographic Headwind
The Nikkei lost 73 percent from its 1989 peak to March 10, the day before the temblor, as the bursting of a property bubble, plunging birthrates, weak consumption and political instability led to economic contraction and deflation. The disaster dragged the country into its third technical recession in a decade.
“The Japanese corporate sector is structurally in much better shape than it was 10 years ago,” said HSBC’s Poole. “The longer terms issues are still there: the debt-to-GDP ratio keeps going higher; there’s a demographic headwind. But the corporate sector, and by extension the equity market, can do well in the short term on the back of corporate earnings.”
Stocks have rebounded after the Trade Ministry said factory production jumped 5.7 percent in May from April, the fastest since 1953, and the July 1 Tankan survey showed firms plan to expand investment in plants and equipment by 4.2 percent this year, almost twice the estimated rate of 2.4 percent. Machinery orders, an indicator of corporate capital spending in three to six months, rose at the fastest month-on-month pace in four months, the Cabinet Office said July 7.
‘A Little Boost’
“If you look at some data that have come out from Japan, especially on supply chains and the production side, that’s been helping giving equities a little boost,” said Naomi Fink, head of Japan strategy at Jefferies Japan Ltd. in Tokyo.
Japanese stocks have led the global advance that began a month ago amid receding concern that a sovereign-debt default by Greece would trigger a banking crisis. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet indicated his willingness to sanction bond rollovers for the nation, and the Greek parliament forced through budget cuts and tax increases on June 30 needed to secure aid to avert a default.
The MSCI World Index of 24 developed nations gained 3.1 percent through July 12 after hitting a post-Japan earthquake low on March 16. The Nikkei 225 has increased 2.9 percent since the start of June, compared with the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index’s 2.2 percent decline and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s drop of 5 percent, based on data compiled by Bloomberg through July 15.
Nuclear Firms Surge
Prime Minister Naoto Kan survived a June 2 no-confidence motion after pledging to resign once a nuclear crisis caused by the quake and tsunami is contained. The conflict over when he will quit has complicated efforts to push through legislation, including authorizing 44.3 trillion yen in government bonds needed to fund this year’s record budget.
Kan’s pick for reconstruction minister, Ryu Matsumoto, quit a week into the job after offending the governor of a region devastated by the tsunami. The prime minister’s approval rating dropped to 19 percent from 24 percent last month, the Mainichi newspaper reported this week.
Electricity-supply companies led Japan’s gains since the start of June. A measure of power companies in the Topix surged 14 percent, led by Tokyo Electric Power Co., the utility at the center of the worst nuclear disaster in 25 years.
‘Low Level’
Kan’s cabinet agreed on June 14 to provide a safety net for Tepco, as the utility is known, while it pays claims for damages related to the nuclear meltdown at its Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant that could exceed $130 billion. Tepco shares had plunged as much as 91 percent since the quake.
“The electrical power and gas index has been very weak from the earthquake,” said Manulife’s Tomioka. “It’s been sold off too much to a level where it became, over the short-term, too cheap. It’s not a big sector, but it’s one example of the market bouncing from a low level.”
Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s biggest brokerage, said 44 percent of institutional investors see the impact of the disaster already being factored into the price of Japanese stocks. The poll was taken between June 28 and June 30.
“The risks are fairly obvious,” said Cashman. “ But what we have to ask is not how much risk there is, but how much risk is priced in. There’s a lot more risk priced into Japan given current valuations.”
--With assistance from Nikolaj Gammeltoft in New York and Keiko Ujikane in Tokyo. Editors: Nick Gentle, Chris Nagi
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To contact the reporters on this story: Anna Kitanaka in Tokyo at akitanaka@bloomberg.net; Lynn Thomasson in Hong Kong at lthomasson@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Gentle at ngentle2@bloomberg.net.
