Bloomberg News

Copper May Fall on Concern About Pace of Growth, Survey Shows

June 23, 2011

June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Copper may fall on concern about the pace of economic growth in the U.S. and China, the world’s two biggest consumers of the metal, a survey showed.

Six of 14 analysts, investors and traders surveyed by Bloomberg, or 43 percent, said prices will drop next week. Five predicted a gain and three forecast little change. Copper for three-month delivery was down 1.4 percent for this week at $8,970 a metric ton by 4:45 p.m. yesterday on the London Metal Exchange.

The Federal Reserve on June 22 lowered estimates for U.S. economic growth this year and next, while also predicting higher unemployment. Manufacturing in China may expand at the slowest pace in 11 months in June, according to a preliminary purchasing managers’ index released yesterday by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics.

“Copper should decline by a small amount next week, similar to what it has done this week, on the slower economic forecasts,” said Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. in New York.

The red bars on the attached chart are derived by subtracting bearish forecasts from bullish estimates, with readings below zero signaling the majority of respondents expect a decline. The green line shows the copper price. The survey data shown are as of June 17.

The weekly copper survey has forecast prices accurately in 69 of the past 142 weeks, or 49 percent of the time.

This week’s survey results: Bearish: 6 Bullish: 5 Hold: 3

--Editors: Dan Weeks, Sharon Lindores.

To contact the reporter on this story: Agnieszka Troszkiewicz in London at atroszkiewic@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net


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