Author of China-Enraging Policy Will Challenge Taiwan’s Ma
April 28, 2011, 4:18 AM EDTBy Janet Ong
(Adds comment from Chinese academic in fourth paragraph.)
April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Taiwan’s opposition picked Tsai Ing-wen as its candidate for presidential elections next year, pitting the author of a policy that prompted China to cut off dialogue a decade ago against an incumbent who has forged warmer ties between the former civil-war foes.
Democratic Progressive Party Chairwoman Tsai, 54, helped pen the “state-to-state relations” doctrine for former President Lee Teng-hui that led China to brand him “a rat” and “the sinner of 10,000 years.” Taiwan’s growing dependence on commerce with its giant neighbor has shaped politics on the island since democratic elections began in 1996.
President Ma Ying-jeou, who heads the Kuomintang party that fought China’s communists six decades ago, reversed the DPP’s pro-independence stance when he took office in 2008. Taiwan has since signed 15 economic agreements with the mainland in a policy that Tsai derided as “boxed in a frame set by China.”
“On the surface she seems mild and rational,” said Wang Jianmin, a researcher on Taiwan at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. “She is in fact quite a separatist. If she becomes president, the cross-strait relationship will suffer a huge reversal.”
The Kuomintang Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek retreated to Taiwan with tens of thousands of followers in 1949 after losing the civil war to Mao Zedong. Though political rivals, the KMT and Communist Party are united in their one-China policy, while native Taiwanese like Tsai and Lee have increasingly sought to carve out an independent state.
No Disguise
“If Taiwan bases cross-strait policy on an independent, one-side one-country basis, then it doesn’t matter how ingenious the packaging is,” Yang Yi, a spokesman on Taiwan affairs for China’s State Council, said at a weekly briefing in Beijing yesterday. “It will affect cross-strait exchange and dialogue and damage the peaceful development of relations.”
China’s threats to retake the island by force may not be necessary as growing trade, investment and financial links make disengagement more difficult. Taiwan’s economy grew 11 percent last year, the fastest pace in 23 years. Exports to the mainland reached a record $3.25 billion in March according to data compiled by Bloomberg, giving the island the world’s biggest trade surplus with China.
Ma’s policies risk falling into the trap of “making political concessions in exchange for economic benefits,” Tsai, a former vice premier who has a doctorate in law from the London School of Economics, said in a speech on Feb. 23.
“I don’t see a significant shift coming on Taiwan’s domestic economic policy whether Tsai or Ma gets elected,” said Eric Hsing, a fixed-income trader at First Securities Inc. in Taipei. “To me, the only major difference between the two political parties is their stance on China.”
First Woman
Tsai served as the head of the Mainland Affairs Council, Taiwan’s top China policymaking agency, from 2000 to 2004 and is the first woman candidate for president in the four direct elections held for the post. The elections, the first combined legislative and presidential poll, will be held Jan. 14.
“I think Ma Ying-jeou has a better chance to win,” said David Dong, executive vice president at Uni-President Management Corp., which oversees NT$75 billion of assets. “He’ll come up with policies to help win a second term, and his China policies are more favored.”
In the 2008 presidential poll, the KMT beat the DPP 58 percent to 42 percent by pledging direct flights to China, lifting of investment restrictions by Taiwanese companies and allowing wider market access.
China and Taiwan in January lowered import taxes on more than 800 products under the first trade treaty between the two. The two sides may reach an agreement to allow individuals from China to visit the island as early as June.
--With reporting by Yidi Zhao in Beijing, Chinmei Sung, Tim Culpan, Yu-huay Sun and Andrea Wong in Taipei. Editors: Ben Richardson, John Brinsley
To contact the reporter on this story: Janet Ong at jong3@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Anstey in Tokyo at canstey@bloomberg.net
