Abbott Overtakes Gillard in Pre-Ballot Australia Poll
July 31, 2010, 2:35 AM EDTBy Candice Zachariahs
(Updates with Abbott comments in sixth paragraph.)
July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Australian opposition leader Tony Abbott’s coalition has an election-winning lead over Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s Labor Party with three weeks of campaigning left before the ballot, according to an opinion poll published today.
The Liberal-National coalition leads Labor 52 percent to 48 percent on a two-party preferred basis, the Sydney Morning Herald reported, citing a Nielsen poll. Gillard’s approval rating fell five points to 51 percent, while Abbott’s rose six points to 49 percent, according to the survey.
Gillard, who called an Aug. 21 general election after ousting Prime Minister Kevin Rudd last month, has seen her initial popularity eroded as key policy initiatives hit roadblocks. A compromise on a proposed mining tax to win the backing of BHP Billiton Ltd., Rio Tinto Group and Xstrata Plc has met with resistance from smaller resources companies, while the past week of campaigning was overshadowed by media reports of leaks within her Cabinet.
“Labor’s had a bad week,” said Rick Kuhn, a political scientist at Australian National University in Canberra. “Things could easily turn around again. This isn’t necessarily a definitive turn.”
The telephone survey of 1,356 voters on July 27 to 29 has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points.
“Look, polls go up and down and I think I am very much the underdog in this election campaign,” Abbott told reporters in Darwin today.
Cabinet Leaks
Gillard’s focus in the second week of the campaign moved from touting Labor’s ability to manage the A$1.2 trillion ($1.09 trillion) economy to defending herself against reported leaks within her government.
A report on Nine Network television, citing unidentified government officials, said Gillard spoke in Cabinet against a proposed rise in pension payments to the aged and a paid parental leave plan. Gillard confirmed July 28 she questioned the affordability of the plans, which she said will cost a total of A$50 billion over the next decade.
“Superficialities can make a big impact when the policy differences between the contenders are small and that’s the case now,” Kuhn said in a telephone interview.
Gillard scaled back a proposed 40 percent levy on mining “super profits” to defuse a row with the nation’s biggest miners that threatened to dominate an election campaign and boost the coalition, which opposes the tax. While she reduced the levy to 30 percent on iron ore and coal profits, small companies say it will still cost jobs and deter investment and last week restarted an anti-tax campaign.
Voters support Abbott’s coalition as a better economic manager by 47 percent to Labor’s 35 percent, while Labor’s overall lead narrowed to four percentage points, according to two Newspoll surveys published in the Australian newspaper on July 26 and 27. A week earlier, Gillard’s party held a 10-point lead over the opposition and led on economic management 42 percent to 41 percent.
---Editors: Ed Johnson, Paul Tighe
To contact the reporter on this story: Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Tighe at ptighe@bloomberg.net
