Iraq’s Al-Maliki Wins Most Seats in Vote, Party Says (Update5)
March 14, 2010, 2:40 PM EDT(Adds provincial results in second, 10th, 15th paragraphs.)
By Kadhim Ajrash
March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al- Maliki’s political bloc, saying it won the most seats in March 7 parliamentary elections, named a commission to hold talks with rival parties on forming a government, an official said today.
In partial results, al-Maliki’s State of Law group is leading in seven of Iraq’s 18 provinces, including Baghdad, the most populous city, and the major southern constituency of Basra, the Independent High Electoral Commission said.
Al-Maliki’s bloc will win about one-third, “or more than 100” seats out of the 325 at stake, Abbas al-Bayati, a State of Law candidate, said by phone in Baghdad. “We have formed a small committee to go into talks and we will make sure that we won’t close doors to anyone that wants to negotiate with us.”
Osama al-Najafi, a member of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi’s Iraqiya alliance, said his group will win 80-90 seats. “We have started communicating with other parties,” he said by phone. “The doors of dialogue are open.”
The statements track with analysts’ opinion that no party or bloc will win a majority when final votes are tallied. All contestants, including Kurdish blocs and other Shiite and Sunni alliances, are generally winning in areas of core sectarian support, according to the first tallies.
Coalition negotiations could last months, analysts said.
‘Bargaining’
“The vote won’t produce a decisive winner and there will have to be bargaining for a ruling coalition,” Marina Ottaway, an analyst at Washington’s Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said in a telephone interview.
Such uncertainty challenges President Barack Obama’s plan to reduce U.S. troop strength in Iraq from 96,000 to 50,000 by August. Violence may increase if Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds aren’t all included in a governing coalition, said Ahmed Ali, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Iraq pumped about 2.4 million barrels of crude oil a day last month, according to Bloomberg estimates. Its 115 billion- barrel reserves are behind only Saudi Arabia and Iran. The U.S., which led a 2003 invasion to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, is scheduled to pull out all its troops by the end of 2011.
State of Law, dominated by al-Maliki’s Shiite Dawa Party, is winning most southern provinces, which are mainly populated by Shiite Muslims. A rival Shiite-led group, the Iraqi National Alliance, is leading in three southern provinces.
‘Very Smoothly’
“We’re very heartened by the whole flow of the process,” said Fred Lash, a spokesman for the U.S. State Department, in a telephone interview today. “The election has gone very smoothly so far.”
Lash declined to comment on the outcome of the election until an official determination is made by the commission.
Iraqiya, whose candidates ran on a non-sectarian platform, is ahead in four Sunni Muslim provinces plus Tamim province, which includes Kirkuk, an oil-rich city beset by tensions between Arabs, Turkoman and Assyrian groups on one side and Kurds on the other. Sunni Muslims, once bedrock supporters of deposed Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, boycotted parliamentary elections in 2005.
Ibrahim Bahr al-Ulum, a National Iraqi Alliance candidate, said in an interview today that his bloc may be “10 seats” behind al-Maliki’s. “We are open to all parties,” he said about possible coalition negotiations.
Kurdistan Alliance member Tania Talaat said the group, which leads in three Kurdish provinces, would win 60 seats. It was too early to discuss talks, Talaat said in an interview, though as far as the bloc was concerned, the key is resolution of a land dispute in and around Kirkuk, which the Kurds want to annex to their autonomous zone.
Al-Maliki’s government has opposed the Kurdish demand. “Through discussion, the Kurdistan Alliance will work on ending the conflict,” Talaat said.
--With assistance from Zahraa Alkhalisi in Abu Dhabi and Catherine Larkin in Washington. Editors: Chris Kirkham, Ann Hughey.
To contact the reporter on this story: Kadhim Ajrash in Baghdad at +971-4-364-1000.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Maher Chmaytelli at mchmaytelli@bloomberg.net
