Thai Protesters Mass in Largest Challenge to Abhisit (Update2)
March 12, 2010, 12:33 AM EST(Adds comment from protester in third paragraph.)
By Daniel Ten Kate
March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Thai protesters began massing in Bangkok in their biggest challenge to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s 15-month-old government, risking clashes that may hamper the economic recovery.
About 300 people gathered at Lumpini Park in the city center waving flags and playing music. The United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship aims to muster a million supporters in the next three days. The group, which backs fugitive ex-leader Thaksin Shinawatra, wants Abhisit to call an election.
“We want our democracy back and we want Thaksin back,” said Siriwon Nimitsilma, 67, a retiree who lived in the U.S. for 46 years before returning to Thailand in 2006. “He’s the prime minister in our minds. If Abhisit thinks he speaks for the majority then he should just call an election. Why doesn’t he want to give power back to the people?”
The protest is the latest incarnation of a power struggle marked by airport blockades, rioting and grenade attacks since the military ousted Thaksin in 2006. The instability has dented consumer confidence and held back overseas investment.
“Events like this are a major put-off,” Hugh Young, Singapore-based managing director of Aberdeen Asset Management Asia, which oversees $25 billion in the region, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview. “My concern is that these particular differences look absolutely set in stone and there seems to be no ability to reconcile the two sides.”
Peaceful Protest
Demonstrators plan to gather at five locations in Bangkok before fanning out on to Bangkok’s main roads, said Weng Tojirakarn, a protest leader. UDD members in the country’s 76 provinces will hold local demonstrations before massing in the capital tomorrow.
Siriwon, who was born in Bangkok, said the protest would grow to at least 1 million people by March 14. Protesters at Lumpini Park, near the city’s business district, had umbrellas to shield them from the sun. Many were dressed in red shirts and hats, and some wore plastic Thaksin face masks.
Protesters will remain peaceful, Weng said, unlike last year when the military quashed a similar demonstration that led to rioting.
“Whoever comes with weapons is not part of our group,” Weng said by phone. “We will denounce them immediately. We just want a new election, nothing else.”
Security Act
The government invoked the Internal Security Act for the sixth time since Abhisit took office, allowing the military to close roads and make arrests. Some 35,000 security officers and 46,000 civilian defense volunteers will be deployed.
Abhisit is meeting in Bangkok with U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, who is on a regional tour. The premier, who won a parliamentary vote in December 2008 after a court disbanded the ruling pro-Thaksin party, reiterated this week that he won’t call an election.
Unarmed security personnel will negotiate with protesters before engaging them, government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn said. They will create human shields to protect restricted areas before using water cannons or tear gas to disperse crowds.
“Until we see flesh and blood, it won’t damage the economy,” Banthoon Lamsam, chief executive officer of Kasikornbank Pcl, Thailand’s third-biggest commercial lender, told reporters yesterday. “Protests happen all the time.”
Grenades were thrown at four branches of Bangkok Bank Pcl, Thailand’s biggest, on Feb. 27, a day after a court seized $1.4 billion of Thaksin’s fortune. A small bomb also exploded near Abhisit’s office on Feb. 13.
Weighing on Stocks
Thailand’s SET Index has trailed stock benchmarks in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines since the 2006 coup. Thai stocks trade at 11 times 2010 earnings, the third-cheapest multiple in Asia after South Korea and Pakistan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“The political uncertainty has been dragging down domestic demand growth as well as overall economic growth,” Vincent Ho, associate director of Fitch Ratings’ Asian sovereign ratings in Hong Kong, said on Bloomberg Television today. “I would not underestimate” the demonstration’s impact, he said.
Thailand’s tourism agency urged foreigners to be vigilant in protest areas. Hotels have seen business functions and weddings canceled because of the protests, said Andrew Wood, a vice president of Skal International, an industry association with 20,000 members in 90 countries.
Economic Impact
Thailand’s consumer confidence fell in February for the first time in four months, a report showed yesterday. The barometer has remained below 2006 levels for the past three years. The government predicted last month the economy may grow as much as 4.5 percent this year after contracting 2.3 percent in 2009. The forecast didn’t take into account any further street protests or violence.
Thaksin has orchestrated protests from Dubai and other overseas locations since fleeing a Thai jail sentence in 2008. He and his allies have won the past four elections on votes from the northeast, Thailand’s poorest region and home to a third of its 66 million people.
Courts have disbanded the pro-Thaksin parties that won the past two elections, prompting his supporters to question the judicial system. Abhisit’s Democrat party hasn’t won the most seats in a nationwide vote since 1992. He must call an election by the end of next year.
“Elections would be useful but they’re no guarantee of a solution,” said Robert Broadfoot, managing director of Hong Kong-based Political & Economic Risk Consultancy Ltd. “You can’t have one political group based in urban areas and another based in rural areas that then bash heads.”
--With assistance from Suttinee Yuvejwattana, Supunnabul Suwannakij and Anuchit Nguyen in Bangkok. Editors: Tony Jordan, Bill Austin
To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Ten Kate in Bangkok at dtenkate@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Bill Austin at billaustin@bloomberg.net
