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The Best Six Months Lie Ahead

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Nov. 6 - At this week’s Investment Policy Committee meeting, we discussed the end of the “Sell in May” period and the start of the typically best six months of the year.

With the close of business on October 30, we formally ended the “Sell in May” period and entered into what The Stock Trader’s Almanac first widely publicized as “The Best Six Months of the Year.” Indeed, whether you look back to 1990, 1970, 1945 or 1929, the S&P 500’s performance from November until April substantially outperformed the market’s typical price change from May through October. Indeed, from 1945 through October 2009, the S&P 500 rose an average 6.6% in the November through April months versus 1.4% in May through October, and the stronger six-month period outperformed the weaker six months by an average 71% of the time.

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