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January 10, 2005 BW Magazine Table of Contents

January 10, 2005 Special Report -- Industry Outlook 2005 Table of Contents







Industry Outlook 2005


INTRODUCTION
Industry Outlook 2005

Online Extra: Industry Outlook 2005 Photo Essay


MANUFACTURING
No Gusher, But A Steady Flow
-- Oil prices should soften, but China's needs remain a wild card
-- Producers are adding capacity, which will stabilize price fluctuations


Tax Credits Put Wind In The Sails Of Renewables
Falling clean- energy costs and rising oil prices are turbocharging green, too

More Good Vibes For Heavy Metal
-- Commodities suppliers are profiting from rising prices and strong global demand
-- Heavy-equipment makers, though braked by the cost of metal, are cashing in as well


Aerospace: Preparing For A Descent
-- The industry expects a gradual downturn in defense procurement...
-- ...cushioned (if fuel prices don't skyrocket) by a climb in commercial airline orders


Construction: Still Building
-- With interest rates rising, residential construction will be off its torrid pace of 2004
-- Commercial developers will pick up the slack with new office and retail projects


Transport: Putting The Pedal To The Metal
-- Demand for shipping by air and truck is strong, and prices are rising
-- Companies are struggling with a shortage of railcars and truck drivers


Commentary: Autos: Borrowing From The Future
After years of lavish sales incentives, demand for cars is flat. With higher interest rates ahead, Detroit's best bet is to offer better cars


INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Telecom: The Merger Is The Message
-- Net technology is replacing old methods, ushering in an era of souped-up services
-- Distinctions within the industry are blurring as outsiders make inroads


A Welcome Nudge From The Net
Equipment makers are cashing in on demand for Internet gear

Software: Expect The Giants To Stay Sluggish
-- Purchasing decisions are being delayed because of Sarbanes-Oxley and Microsoft
-- Open source is going after niche business and putting pricing pressure on the titans


Tightwad IT Buyers Loosen Up
-- Healthy demand will keep sales of new computers on the upswing
-- But remembering the slump, companies will favor smaller, cheaper systems


Online Extra: Info Tech in Middle Age
The sector is maturing, says IDC's Crawford Del Prete. That means slow but steady growth

No End In Sight To The Honeymoon With Digital
Demand is still climbing for everything from cameras to PDAs to music players

Commentary: The New Driver In Chipland
Now consumers are propelling industry growth as semiconductor smarts become a must in everyday devices and newfangled gizmos


LIFE SCIENCES
More Bitter Pills For Big Pharma
-- Patents are expiring on blockbuster drugs, and there's not much in the pipelines
-- Executives fear that Washington will get tough in the wake of the Vioxx debacle


Biotech Is One Sector With Strong Vital Signs

Commentary: Health Care: More Money, Less Care
Ever higher outlays aren't getting the U.S. a better health-care system, but the pols aren't doing much to redress this miserable equation


SERVICES
Retail: There Goes The Gravy Train
-- Rising interest rates and inflation will probably leave consumers with less to spend
-- Deep discounters such as Wal-Mart will keep the price pressure on rivals


Online Extra: Pushing the RedEnvelope
This specialty e-tailer's CEO talks about what it takes to thrive as a merchant without bricks and mortar

Media: New Generations Steal The Show
-- Most traditional types of media will give up share to a New Media rival
-- Companies are likely to consolidate as they scramble to stay on the cutting edge


Why Big Bucks Are Chasing Targeted Media

Gray Skies Ahead -- But More Will Fly
-- Steep oil prices and overcapacity will keep bogging down airlines
-- Travel is on the rise, perking up profits of hotels and car-rental companies


Professional Services: Cleaning Up By Cleaning Up
-- Uncle Sam's crackdown on fraud has been good for auditors and lawyers
-- Consultants can expect steady work from health-care and government clients


Online Extra: "Huge Progress" in Auditing
Deloitte & Touche CEO Jim Quigley says Sarbanes-Oxley has created "a new plateau" for his industry

Commentary: U.S. Schools: Underperforming
The No Child Left Behind Act isn't doing the trick, and higher college tuition costs are squeezing out lower-income students


FINANCE
Banking: Bracing For The Squeeze
-- Earnings growth from financial services is set to slow as interest rates escalate
-- With companies lean from cost-cutting, mergers could provide the next profit surge


Consumer Debt: The Deeper The Hole, The Better For Business
Collection agencies will benefit as higher rates squeeze debtors

Commentary: Insurance: Now Come The Real Storms
The specter of price wars and increased regulation could send industry executives running for cover
 KEY TO INDUSTRY DATA

Each page within the photo essay links to the appropriate story and includes a chart and a table. Here's what the numbers mean:
SPOTLIGHTS Show industry performance, by selected metrics, for 2001-05.
2005 PROSPECTS BW has given each industry a grade by comparing its 2005 growth to its growth trend.
2005 GROWTH This forecast of output growth from Economy.com gives the change in the value created by each industry. Unlike a measure of revenue, this "value-added" approach doesn't count the same sales twice.
GROWTH TREND Average annual growth, 1990-2004.
OUTPUT A forecast of the nominal value each industry will create this year.
EMPLOYMENT Estimated number of workers in 2005.

 RELATED VIDEO

kathleen madigan 2005's Wild Cards
The dollar, oil, inflation, housing, and terrorism are possible disruptions to the new year's outlook, says BW's Kathleen Madigan.

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