Obama: Connecting the Dots to Win

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Each of the two major political parties is haunted by the memory of a one-term President undone by an underperforming economy. For the Democrats, Carter provides the object lesson. For the Republicans, it’s George H.W. Bush, the victim of James Carville’s remorseless “it’s the economy, stupid” mantra in 1992.

How tough is Obama’s road ahead? At this point in the election calendar, he’s doing worse than both Carter and Bush. Despite runaway inflation and gas lines, the U.S. produced nearly 170,000 jobs per month in the summer of 1979, almost five times the pace during the comparable period this year. Likewise, one year before President George H.W. Bush sought a second term, the unemployment rate was 7 percent. Today it is 9.1 percent. “The President is incredibly vulnerable because of the economy,” says Matthew Dowd, a Republican strategist and a Bloomberg News consultant.

Indeed, popular support is draining from the White House. In the Bloomberg poll, 64 percent of respondents said they will either definitely vote for someone other than Obama or consider doing so. More than half say his $447 billion jobs plan would do nothing to lower the jobless rate.

Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster, says incumbents can defy hard times and win a new mandate only by transforming the election into something other than the customary vote on their performance. “It’s important to make it at least a choice between the incumbent and the challenger, if not a referendum on the challenger,” he said.

So the President may appeal to Florida retirees by casting his Republican rival as extreme on Social Security. Or he may try to round up Latino votes in Arizona by assailing Republican proposals to crack down on illegal immigrants. And he’ll continually underscore the long-term, structural dimensions of the economy’s ailments. “People understand that the seeds for this were sown long before the President became President,” says Democratic Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado. “They’re not going to be deciding this election based on bumper stickers or slogans.”

For all his economic woes, Obama retains some strengths. Shifting demographics continue to make states such as Virginia more hospitable terrain for the Democrats. Likewise, in Wisconsin, Republican Governor Scott Walker’s campaign to curtail labor rights could give the President a boost by energizing union member turnout.

Obama also may find an ally in the passage of time. In September, employers added 103,000 jobs—better than expected, though still not great. The President ultimately has to hope that the economy continues to expand, however anemically, enabling him to claim progress. “Then he can say, ‘Don’t change horses; we’re moving in the right direction,’ ” says Jared Bernstein, a former White House economist. “But that’s pretty tough to argue if you’re not moving in the right direction.”

Lynch is a reporter for Bloomberg News.