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What the Next Census Will Tell Marketers

Reported Missing: the Average American, a.k.a. Jane and Joe Consumer. Odds of locating: slim to none. That's one of the conclusions of a white paper from Advertising Age titled "2010 America." Penned by Peter Francese of Ogilvy & Mather, the paper delves into the demographic changes likely to be revealed by the 2010 census and the attendant challenges for marketers.

While data from the census won't start trickling out until March 2011, some trends can already be glimpsed. First and foremost, gone are the days when advertisers could aim at a single broad demographic. In the 10 largest cities, no racial or ethnic group constitutes a majority. By 2010, white non-Hispanics will make up 80% of the population aged 65 and up but just 54% of Americans under 18. Also, the county's center of gravity is shifting fast. Over the past decade, 85% of population growth occurred in the South and West, while the Northeast and Midwest shrank.

The census will also give marketers a clearer picture of American families than they've ever had, as respondents will have 14 choices to describe their households. Francese projects that by 2010 the most prevalent household will be a married couple with no kids, followed closely by single-person homes—while marrieds with kids will tally a mere 22% of all households.

—Edited by Harry Maurer & Cristina Lindblad

AIG, Meet 'AIG Two'

Insuring well may be the best revenge for Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, former CEO of AIG. Greenberg was bounced after an accounting scandal but is still AIG's top shareholder after the U.S. government. On Oct. 27, The New York Times described Greenberg's efforts to build his new company, C.V. Starr, into a complex web of insurers similar to the one he wove at AIG. Greenberg has hired 13 former AIG executives, raising concerns that he will snatch business away from AIG and harm its prospects of returning $121 billion in bailout money. In a statement issued after the Times story appeared, C.V. Starr argued that other firms have hired many more people away from the crippled behemoth, and that the exodus is due to Washington's mismanagement.

—Edited by Harry Maurer & Cristina Lindblad

Marchionne Revs Up

Fasten your seat belts—here comes Chrysler Italiano. Fiat (FIATY) CEO Sergio Marchionne will deliver his fix-it plan for Chrysler on Nov. 4. Controlling owner Fiat aims to use its engineering works to make compact and midsize cars for Chrysler and will offer the Fiat 500 subcompact in the U.S. Various Dodge models, including the Grand Caravan, and several Jeeps will disappear. And Fiat's Alfa Romeo brand will build an SUV based on the Jeep Grand Cherokee. Also on the auto front, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 28 that lender GMAC Financial Services is looking for a third bailout from the Treasury—between $2.8 billion and $5.6 billion on top of the $13.5 billion it has already soaked up. And Ford (F) said on Oct. 28 that China's Geely Automotive is the lead candidate to buy Volvo.

—Edited by Harry Maurer & Cristina Lindblad

Black, White, and Unread

It's hardly a revelation that more people are giving up newspapers and opting to read news free online. On Oct. 26 the Audit Bureau of Circulations said that daily readership fell a steeper-than-expected 11% for the six months ending in September, with the San Francisco Chronicle leading losers with a 25.8% plunge. But the overall drop was partly self-inflicted by publishers, many of whom are raising prices and cutting circulation on purpose to control costs, aiming to bring in more dollars by selling fewer papers. What's more, it may be working. Circulation revenues at newspaper group Media General (MEG) rose 11% in the third quarter. New York Times Co. (NYT) saw a 7% climb. Whether those gains can offset vanishing ads is the conundrum keeping weary publishers up nights.

—Edited by Harry Maurer & Cristina Lindblad

A Bump for Baidu

Baidu (BIDU), the emperor of online search in China, reported another scintillating quarter on Oct. 26: a 42% profit surge, to $72 million, on a 39% sales increase, to $187 million. With performance like that, no wonder Google (GOOG) has made little headway in China, where Baidu has about two-thirds of the market. However, Baidu stock promptly sank 13%. Why? Because the Nasdaq-listed company also mentioned that it's bracing for a revenue hit in the fourth quarter, when it will shift to a new management system for its advertising. The stock bounced back in the following days and is still up 90% over the past 12 months.

—Edited by Harry Maurer & Cristina Lindblad

Soros' New Think Tank

"The entire edifice of global financial markets has been erected on the false premise that markets can be left to their own devices." Them's fightin' words, and that's exactly what liberal billionaire investor George Soros has in mind. On Oct. 27, Soros pledged $50 million over 10 years to create an Institute for New Economic Thinking that will seek "alternatives to the prevailing dogma" of classical economics. Soros' mission statement continued: "We must find a new paradigm and rebuild from the ground up." Founding advisers include Nobelist Joseph Stiglitz and former International Monetary Fund chief economist Kenneth Rogoff.

—Edited by Harry Maurer & Cristina Lindblad

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