The Case for Optimism August 13, 2009, 5:00PM EST

Why It's Smart To Be Optimistic

(page 4 of 4)

Many Chinese and Indians agree that power is shifting in their direction. "I think the United States' power is going to decline, relatively speaking. I have no doubt about that. Whether that is good for the world or bad for the world, it's too early to tell," says Lanxin Xiang, a professor of international history and politics at the Graduate Institute of International & Development Studies in Geneva and a columnist for the Chinese government-backed newspaper Global Times.

A relative decline in America's standing would be a blow to U.S. pride. It could be destabilizing as well if it sets off a scramble for power around the globe. But the optimistic case is that rising incomes will give other countries more of a stake in preserving the peace. Keep in mind, too, that the 1.6% annual improvement in living standards that Maddison forecasts for the U.S. is substantial compared with most of human history. At that rate, it would take only about two generations—45 years—for U.S. living standards to double.

Techno-optimists argue that human ingenuity can solve any problem, including the pollution and resource depletion caused by the strong global growth they foresee. That's a bit strong. Sadly, throwing a lot of people and money at scientific problems hasn't always solved them. We still aren't driving fuel cell-powered vehicles or designing drugs effortlessly by computer. (See our June 15 Cover Story, "Innovation, Interrupted.")

ERADICATING SMALLPOX

Still, the acceleration in scientific research is a good thing. Says W. Michael Cox, the co-author of Myths of Rich and Poor: Why We're Better Off Than We Think and the director of the newly formed O'Neil Center for Global Markets & Freedom at Southern Methodist University: "We're at the very beginning of the use of genomics to create new drugs. People are inventing driverless cars. There will be spillovers from nanotech." Ninety-nine percent of the ideas in circulation today could flop, and you'd still have a fair number of winners. "The potential is absolutely there," says Princeton's Tenner. "I just have an idea or a hope that one or more of these is going to break loose."

Tenner's gut sense of optimism is familiar to scientists and entrepreneurs. In this Special Report, we're making the case for a no-nonsense brand of optimism. But truth be told, there's also something to be said for just going for it.

In the 1970s, Dr. Lawrence Brilliant worked in India on an international effort to eradicate smallpox, which killed 300 million to 500 million people in the 20th century alone, more than all the century's wars combined. The effort succeeded in 1979. "After that, how could you not be an optimist?" asks Brilliant. In April he became president of the new Skoll Urgent Threats Fund, a nonprofit started by philanthropist Jeffrey Skoll, the first president of eBay (EBAY), to combat pandemics, climate change, nuclear proliferation, and other global problems. Brilliant argues that optimism must come from both the heart and the head: "Faith, science, and will. I draw on all of them."

The case for optimism is really a case for being open-minded—giving due weight to the possibility that things will get better than you think. Of course, no one really knows. But rational optimism, along with a pinch of Mary Pruitt-style enthusiasm, just might go a long way.

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Coy is BusinessWeek's Economics editor.

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