Investment Advice from Jack Bogle

The father of indexing cautions against trusting money management firms, market timing, or underestimating the potential for stock gains

By Roben Farzad

Jack Bogle turns 80 this May. Last summer his body started to reject his 13-year-old transplanted heart, a turn of events that landed him in the hospital four times as the financial world was melting down. Bogle should be in bed. He has every reason to just sit back and reflect on his career as the father of indexing and as the conscience of the individual investor.

But with the stock market not far from a 12-year low—and banks the world over taking ever-larger bailouts—he'd rather spend these delicate days raising hell (much to his wife's consternation). He thinks mutual funds totally blew it by spending untold sums on supposedly deep-digging in-house research only to totally miss the leverage time bomb. This might be a tad more tolerable, he says, if they didn't pass those costs on to customers, who ended up losing even more.

Bogle is pressing Washington for explicit regulation concerning fiduciary responsibilities. Here is some of Bogle's advice for investors in these turbulent times.

The Stock Market
"If you can't afford to lose one more penny," says Bogle, "get out. But, if you're in your 20s to 40s, keep going. These are good values. The stock market has taken an awful lot of this mess into account, and it's hard for me to believe that common equities won't do better than Treasuries from this point on." Bogle thinks that a 7% nominal return—more than twice Treasury bonds—is realizable over the next decade.

Simple Math
Bogle's "relentless rules of humble arithmatic" show the importance of being vigilant about costs. A dollar invested over 50 years at 8% a year compounds to just under $47. But dock just 2% for expense ratios and transaction costs and you're down to $18. Back out another three percentage points for inflation and you're at $4.38—less than a tenth of your potential catch.

On Timing and Chasing the Sector du Jour
"The stock market's day-to-day is actually a distraction to the business of investing," according to Bogle. His point: The past century of data show that American businesses have grown at an annual rate of about 9.5%, with 4.5% from dividend yields and the remaining 5% from earnings growth. The simultaneous aggregate return on bonds averaged 5%. These are the realistic benchmarks to focus on. "It's all simplicity, mathematics, and common sense," he says. In other words, calibrate your expectations to these long-term figures, a discipline that requires you to ignore the pull of solar, B2B, nanotech, or whatever last year's hot sector was.

Sales Ethics and Practice
Caveat emptor for investors: Don't assume your retirement provider or money management firm espouses a standard of honesty, full and fair disclosure, or putting its clients' interests first. The industry is quietly bifurcated into salesmen and professionals. That is why Bogle is urging Washington to enact a federal standard of fiduciary duty to mandate prioritizing clients, avoiding conflicts, and disclosing all fees.

Overextended Treasuries
"Bond prices are already high. Stocks should do 3 or 4 percentage points better than bonds."

Act Your Age
The percentage of your portfolio in bonds should roughly match your age. For example, a 30-year-old investor would be 30% in fixed income—a 75-year-old, 75%.

Where's the End?
This downturn could last 1½ years to 2 years. But the stock market will recover months before a turnaround comes. Don't try to time your entry.

Plan More Wisely: Your Savings Are Likely Inadequate
At the end of 2008, the median 401(k) balance is estimated at just $15,000 per participant. Even if you project this balance for a middle-aged employee with growth over time via presumed higher salaries and investment returns, that figure might rise to some $300,000 at retirement age (if the assumptions are correct).