The stock market's continued plunge has understandably thinned the ranks of prognosticators who see better times coming soon. But a couple of bulls have been sighted in the pundit-o-sphere. One is Douglas Kass, founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management, which runs several hedge funds. Kass, known for successfully shorting real estate and financial stocks, has just opened a new fund to profit from buying opportunities. "I think we're at the beginning of the end of the bear market," he says. "The path still looks icy, but I can see in the not-too-far distance the bartender standing in sunshine and mixing piña coladas."
O.K., that's a minority view. But for Kass, that's nothing new. When he warned of a housing bubble back in 2005 and 2006, he was berated across the airwaves and the Internet. And 15 months ago, when he began to go "very negative" on the economy, the stock market, and credit markets, "I was [treated like] Cassandra," he says. "Today," he adds, "the same people who didn't see this coming have embraced total negativity."
Another lonely bull is Bob Doll, chief investment officer for equities at BlackRock (BLK), the $1.3 trillion money management firm now owned mainly by Bank of America (BAC) and PNC Financial Services Group (PNC). Like Kass, Doll sees some gyrating as the market finds its floor. But he predicts that the S&P 500-stock index will be up 15% or more by the end of 2009. One key sign that stocks will bottom soon, says Doll: The amount of cash in money market funds now exceeds 40% of the stock market's total value—an all-time high. "Historically, cash reaches its maximum when the market hits its bottom," he says. Doll is amused to be considered a bull. "I think I'm being cautious," he says.
Cash is the new black at big corporations, many of which accumulated heaps of it last quarter (table). Some are playing extreme defense: General Electric (GE) has amassed a $48 billion hoard to make the company "more safe and secure in this environment," says spokesman Russell Wilkerson. Others are going on the offensive. Cisco Systems (CSCO), whose official filings say its recently raised cash will be used for "general" purposes, is widely believed to be looking for deals. Verizon (VZ) has used much of its pile to digest Alltel Wireless, making it the nation's biggest cell-phone player. Meanwhile, DuPont (DD), Google (GOOG), IBM (IBM), and Qualcomm (QCOM) say they are considering an array of uses for their cash. As for Apple (AAPL), CEO Steve Jobs pointed out to analysts last October that cash gives him the "ability to invest through this downturn." The last time Apple did that, in the dot-com bust, one result was the iPod.