The Electric Car Battery War

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This time federal help could be on the way. Battery makers are expected to get some of the $25 billion set aside last year under Washington's Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing Program to speed the commercialization of green cars. EnerDel, a subsidiary of Ener1, has applied for a loan to build a plant capable of making 600,000 batteries a year. Rival A123 of Watertown, Mass., wants $1.8 billion to build a car-battery factory in Michigan. Under the $790 billion stimulus package under debate in Congress, U.S. lithium-ion makers also could compete for $2 billion in grants to fund research and development and manufacturing.

Lithium ion is regarded as a core enabling technology for plug-in hybrid vehicles, which, unlike most current hybrids, can be recharged with normal household current and run much longer on electricity before a gas-powered engine takes over. Lithium-ion cells can store up to three times more juice and generate twice the power of the nickel-metal hydride batteries used in today's hybrids. The T-shaped lithium-ion battery for the Chevrolet Volt, due in 2011, will contain 200 such cells. "They aren't just another part. They are the car," says Masahiko Otsuka, president of Automotive Energy Supply, a joint venture between Nissan Motor (NSANY) and NEC that aims to invest $275 million in new lithium-ion facilities.

MANAGING THE GRID, TOO

General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) both assert that a domestic lithium-ion industry is vital if the U.S. is to be a major player in green cars. Otherwise, Detroit's fate would be in the hands of suppliers half a world away. Besides, lithium-ion technologies can be used to help electric utilities manage their grids more efficiently—a potentially bigger market than cars. "As a country, we can rely on others," says Denise Gray, energy storage director at GM. "But we could fall behind." GM turned to South Korea's LG Chem to supply lithium-ion cells for the Volt because the carmaker says U.S. companies lacked sufficient manufacturing experience.

Another Asian contender is Toyota-controlled Panasonic EV Energy. Panasonic supplies 90% of the nickel-metal hydride batteries used in today's hybrids. Last year it agreed to buy Sanyo Electric, the largest maker of rechargeable batteries.

China has more than 10 manufacturers—Beijing has declared lithium ion a strategic industry. Mainland battery giant BYD Auto, in which Warren Buffett holds a 10% stake, turned heads at the Detroit car show with a small plug-in hybrid sedan, the F6DM, that it says can run 60 miles on a lithium-ion battery before the vehicle switches to gasoline. In China, BYD already sells a plug-in for $22,000. The Volt is expected to cost $40,000.

Analysts say no U.S. or Asian contender has solved all of the challenges of producing lithium-ion car batteries that are safe, reliable, and affordable: Questions linger over the battery's ability to last long enough to satisfy car buyers, for example. With no company in mass production, there is little real-world evidence to back up bold claims. Tokyo-based JPMorgan (JPM) analyst Yoshiharu Izumi thinks Panasonic is the most formidable player, but "it's too early to say who will win."

MASS MARKET DOUBTS

The U.S. is still in the race. The Energy Dept. has poured some $600 million into lithium-ion research. A123 has blue-chip investors like General Electric (GE), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Sequoia Capital. It uses nanomaterials developed at MIT that it claims will deliver higher voltage and weigh less than rivals' batteries.