Election 2008 April 17, 2008, 5:00PM EST

The Wal-Mart Sisterhood

Why lower-middle-class white women could be key to the Democratic nomination—and victory in the fall

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Lobb, with sons in Bangor, Pa., says: "Things have gotten really hard" Bill Cramer/Wonderful Machine

by Jane Sasseen

Johnson rarely dines out since the housing crisis slashed her income Bill Cramer/Wonderful Machine

Brouillet balks at both Democrats' health-care plans Armando Bellmas

It's a sunny morning in early April, and as she does every week, Lisa Lobb has driven 15 miles to load up on groceries at the Wal-Mart Supercenter outside of Bethlehem, Pa. Sure, there are plenty of stores closer to home, but with rising gas and food costs gobbling up ever more of her budget, the 36-year-old mother of four makes the drive for Wal-Mart (WMT) Stores' low prices.

As she piles bags into the trunk of her Chevy Impala, Lobb pulls out an envelope to show off her system for squeezing the most out of every buck. On the back, she jots down the full week's menus; on the front, she lists all the ingredients; and stuffed inside are coupons to save a few cents more. "Things have gotten really hard," she says. "You start to wonder sometimes how you can keep going."

As Lobb contemplates whom she'll vote for in Pennsylvania's Apr. 22 primary, that strain of just getting by weighs heavily on her mind. Like much of the state, the area around the old steel town has been hammered by the steady loss of manufacturing jobs. Lobb brings in extra cash by making custom birthday cakes. While she voted twice for George W. Bush, she's abandoning the GOP and leaning toward Senator Hillary Clinton, although she thinks either Democrat will do better on the economy. "The way things are being run now, it's just not working," Lobb says.

CRUCIAL DEMOGRAPHIC

Move over, Soccer Moms, there's a new gal in town. Lobb may not know it, but she's part of what looks to be an increasingly crucial demographic in the Presidential election: Wal-Mart Women. These lower-middle-class white women who shop frequently at the discounter are stretched thin and feel increasingly vulnerable. "This is a critical group, and they're up for grabs," says pollster John Zogby.

No one knows that better than Bill McInturff, the longtime pollster for presumptive Republican nominee John McCain who coined the term Wal-Mart Women. "Republicans have to be able to compete for these women," he says. "We can't win without them." To drive that point home, Senator McCain's campaign manager, Rick Davis, in early April urged a group of state party officials to get to know these voters and better understand their lives.

The Democrats recognize their importance, too. Clinton and Senator Barack Obama are waging a fierce war to win them over in Pennsylvania. The fact is, women hauling smiley-face Wal-Mart bags make up a big chunk of the country: Nearly 20% of American women shop at Wal-Mart once a week or more. And the white women who constitute the majority of that group are classic swing voters, unlike their husbands, who McInturff says are more reliably Republican. Many chose Bill Clinton, but they backed Bush by a 14-point margin in 2004. Like Lobb, a fair number are leaning toward the Democrats, particularly Senator Clinton. In a recent poll, Clinton beat McCain 50% to 44% among Wal-Mart Women. But in a McCain-Obama contest, McCain won 51% to 41%.

Just who are Wal-Mart Women? They're not as well-off as average Americans: Some 41% of frequent Wal-Mart shoppers have incomes below $35,000, vs. 25% of the population at large. They're less educated than their neighbors: 31% of U.S. voters have a high school education or less, vs. 39% for Wal-Mart Women. Those characteristics set them apart from the firmly middle-class Soccer Moms so closely tracked in past elections.

WORRIED ABOUT JOBS

Wal-Mart Women also tend to be more suburban or rural and are likely to live in the South. Many are culturally conservative and religious—key reasons a majority backed Bush. This year, however, economic concerns, rather than social issues or Iraq, are more important to them. "They are traditional voters, but they are extremely sensitive economically," says Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic strategist. So as Clinton and Obama crisscross the scarred industrial towns of Pennsylvania, Clinton has redoubled her emphasis on lunch-bucket issues, offering proposals for a stimulus package, help for homeowners, and big hikes in infrastructure spending to create jobs. And she seems to be connecting.

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