Political Guru Charlie Cook on the Primaries

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The potential for this becoming a McCain-Huckabee fight for the nomination gets very real if Romney loses Michigan and Giuliani doesn't generate some momentum between now and the Florida primary on Jan. 29. Super Tuesday on Feb. 5 could be all over the map. You've got a vacuum in the Republican Party. They desperately need a new Ronald Reagan, and they haven't found one. They've been sort of infatuated with one candidate after another but get disillusioned and pull back.

What about Thompson?
I can make a case for McCain, Romney, and Huckabee. I can even make a case for Giuliani. I can't see any case for Thompson. His candidacy has turned out to be kind of a poor idea that was badly executed.

Pundits predicted a huge youth wave in New Hampshire for Obama. What happened?
The undecided vote in New Hampshire, which broke strongly for Clinton, was disproportionately female and college-educated. That means pro-choice on the abortion issue. A late mailing the Clinton campaign sent to undecided women hit Obama for voting "present," neither yes or no, on seven abortion votes while he was in the Illinois State Senate. That attack, plus Clinton choking up on the Monday before the primary—which revealed a less brittle side of herself—could have moved undecided female voters. It's just a theory.

That moment when Hillary choked up could have gone both ways, right?
Yes. The biggest mistake Clinton has made is she doesn't come across as a real person, and women have had difficulty identifying with her.

Could it come down to McCain vs. Hillary?
That would be a heck of a race. McCain has a greater degree of likability and reaches independents better, but he turned 72 in August, and people have real concerns [about his age]. He would be the oldest newly elected President in history. But all these match-ups are interesting. Huckabee's got the social conservatives but has the most economic populist appeal—in some ways second only to John Edwards. If Romney had not made all those switches on cultural issues, I think he'd be the front-runner. That's hurt him a lot more than religion. I can still see how Romney gets this nomination. Giuliani, it's a little harder, but each of these candidates has a shot. We've never seen a situation that gets less clear rather than more clear as the process goes on.

Maria Bartiromo is the anchor of CNBC's Closing Bell.