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DECEMBER 19, 2005
 
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The Ups and Downs of Home Prices

While some once-hot metro markets like Las Vegas are showing signs of cooling, others are still on the upside of the boom. Phoenix, which was slow to catch fire, actually saw accelerating price gains this year -- at least up through the third quarter.


The following tables are from an analysis by David Stiff, chief economist of Fiserv CSW, of single-family home price data from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Included in the tables are only those metro areas that had at least 15% price increases from the first quarter of 2004 through the first quarter of 2005. The first table shows markets that subsequently slowed, while the second shows ones that got even hotter through the July-to-September quarter.



WHERE PRICE INCREASES SLOWED...    
Metro area Change from Q1, 2004, to Q1, 2005 Annualized rate of change from Q1, 2005, to Q3, 2005 Percentage point change in annual rate of increase
Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev. 34.7% 14.4% -20.3%
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif. 25.9% 9.1% -16.8%
Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, Calif. 28.4% 13.1% -15.3%
Salinas, Calif. 32.0% 19.8% -12.1%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. 29.8% 20.4% -9.3%
Reno-Sparks, Nev. 32.8% 23.5% -9.3%
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif. 25.0% 16.4% -8.6%
Bakersfield, Calif. 34.8% 26.8% -8.0%
Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif. 25.5% 18.5% -7.1%
Ocean City, N.J. 20.8% 14.2% -6.6%
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, Calif. 22.9% 16.3% -6.6%
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, Calif. 26.9% 20.5% -6.4%
Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, N.Y. 17.3% 11.4% -5.9%
Hanford-Corcoran, Calif. 30.3% 24.9% -5.5%
Norwich-New London, Conn. 16.4% 11.0% -5.4%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif. 27.0% 21.6% -5.3%
Panama City-Lynn Haven, Fla. 31.1% 27.0% -4.2%
El Centro, Calif. 32.0% 28.0% -4.0%
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, R.I.-Mass. 15.9% 12.2% -3.7%
Visalia-Porterville, Calif. 33.4% 29.9% -3.5%
Springfield, Mass. 15.3% 12.2% -3.1%
Yuba City, Calif. 27.2% 24.0% -3.1%
Stockton, Calif. 29.3% 26.5% -2.8%
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla. 31.9% 29.2% -2.6%
Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y. 16.4% 13.9% -2.4%
Fresno, Calif. 27.4% 25.0% -2.4%
Newark-Union, N.J.-Pa. 16.2% 13.9% -2.4%
Santa Rosa-Petaluma, Calif. 21.7% 19.7% -2.0%
Madera, Calif. 28.1% 26.4% -1.7%
San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, Calif. 18.7% 17.0% -1.6%
Kingston, N.Y. 16.9% 15.4% -1.5%
Edison, N.J. 16.9% 16.1% -0.9%
Vallejo-Fairfield, Calif. 23.3% 22.6% -0.7%
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, Calif. 20.0% 19.3% -0.7%
Camden, N.J. 16.8% 16.4% -0.4%
Gainesville, Fla. 17.8% 17.6% -0.3%
Napa, Calif. 21.9% 21.6% -0.3%
...AND WHERE THEY ACCELERATED    
Metro area Change from Q1, 2004, to Q1, 2005 Annualized rate of change from Q1, 2005, to Q3, 2005 Percentage point change in annual rate of increase
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. 21.7% 46.0% 24.3%
St. George, Utah 19.4% 42.7% 23.3%
Lakeland, Fla. 15.5% 37.7% 22.2%
Tucson, Ariz. 16.5% 34.9% 18.3%
Orlando, Fla. 20.0% 37.6% 17.5%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla. 25.1% 41.7% 16.6%
Naples-Marco Island, Fla. 25.4% 41.7% 16.3%
Prescott, Ariz. 20.5% 35.0% 14.5%
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, Fla. 22.2% 32.9% 10.7%
Vero Beach, Fla. 28.1% 38.7% 10.6%
Ocala, Fla. 20.0% 30.4% 10.4%
Yuma, Ariz. 26.8% 36.5% 9.7%
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla. 23.1% 32.1% 9.0%
Coeur d'Alene, Idaho 25.5% 34.2% 8.7%
Flagstaff, Ariz.-Utah 21.2% 29.7% 8.5%
Dover, Del. 15.8% 24.3% 8.4%
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla. 24.6% 32.4% 7.7%
Jacksonville, Fla. 15.6% 22.9% 7.3%
Bremerton-Silverdale, Wash. 16.5% 23.6% 7.0%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla. 19.7% 26.7% 6.9%
Honolulu, Hawaii 22.4% 29.3% 6.9%
Eugene-Springfield, Ore. 15.2% 21.9% 6.7%
Punta Gorda, Fla. 24.5% 30.4% 5.9%
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla. 22.3% 28.1% 5.8%
Redding, Calif. 21.7% 27.3% 5.6%
Bellingham, Wash. 19.5% 24.3% 4.8%
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y. 15.9% 20.6% 4.7%
Winchester, Va.-W.Va. 22.9% 27.5% 4.6%
Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, Fla. 26.9% 31.3% 4.4%
Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, N.J. 19.4% 23.8% 4.4%
Merced, Calif. 28.8% 33.0% 4.2%
Tacoma, Wash. 15.9% 20.1% 4.1%
Hagerstown-Martinsburg, Md.-W.Va. 22.0% 26.1% 4.1%
Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce, Fla. 27.4% 31.4% 4.0%
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, Fla. 26.9% 30.9% 4.0%
Atlantic City, N.J. 18.4% 22.3% 3.8%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. 18.7% 22.3% 3.6%
Wilmington, Del.-Md.-N.J. 15.4% 19.0% 3.6%
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C. 23.1% 26.4% 3.2%
Modesto, Calif. 27.0% 30.1% 3.1%
Trenton-Ewing, N.J. 17.1% 20.2% 3.1%
Tallahassee, Fla. 16.7% 19.5% 2.8%
Fort Walton Beach-Crestview-Destin, Fla. 33.6% 36.4% 2.8%
Charlottesville, Va. 17.4% 19.8% 2.4%
Carson City, Nev. 27.5% 29.4% 1.9%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.Va. 24.2% 25.9% 1.8%
Chico, Calif. 21.4% 23.2% 1.8%
Salisbury, Md. 21.0% 22.8% 1.7%
Casper, Wyo. 15.0% 16.3% 1.3%
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, Calif. 22.8% 23.9% 1.2%
Harrisonburg, Va. 18.0% 19.0% 1.0%
New York-Wayne-White Plains, N.Y.-N.J. 16.3% 17.0% 0.7%
Bethesda-Frederick-Gaithersburg, Md. 22.0% 22.5% 0.5%
Burlington-South Burlington, Vt. 15.4% 15.6% 0.2%
Baltimore-Towson, Md. 21.6% 21.7% 0.2%
Medford, Ore. 25.0% 25.1% 0.1%
Philadelphia, Pa. 16.0% 16.1% 0.1%
Data: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, Fiserv CSW Inc.




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