|
|
ONLINE FEATURES
Book Reviews
BW Video
Columnists
Interactive Gallery
Newsletters
Past Covers
Philanthropy
Podcasts
Special Reports
BLOGS
Auto Beat
Bangalore Tigers
Blogspotting
Brand New Day
Byte of the Apple
Economics Unbound
Eye on Asia
Fine On Media
Green Biz
Hot Property
Investing Insights
Management IQ
NEXT: Innovation
NussbaumOnDesign
Tech Beat
Working Parents
TECHNOLOGY
J.D. Power Ratings
Product Reviews
Tech Stats
Wildstrom: Tech Maven
AUTOS
Home Page
Auto Reviews
Classic Cars
Car Care & Safety
Hybrids
INNOVATION
& DESIGN Home Page Architecture Brand Equity Auto Design Game Room SMALLBIZ Smart Answers Success Stories Today's Tip INVESTING Investing: Europe Annual Reports BW 50 S&P Picks & Pans Stock Screeners Free S&P Stock Report SCOREBOARDS Hot Growth 100 Mutual Funds Info Tech 100 S&P 500 B-SCHOOLS Undergrad Programs MBA Blogs MBA Profiles MBA Rankings Who's Hiring Grads | |
MAY 30, 2005
Edited by Lee Walczak The GOP: Rainy Days For Blue-Sky Thinking Inspired by the early domestic policy success of George W. Bush, Republicans have made "big reform" their rallying cry. But now both the President and erstwhile imitators -- from brother Jeb in Florida to political phenom Arnold Schwarzenegger in California -- are learning a hard lesson: Big ideas carry big risks. In Washington, a once-dominant Bush has watched his Social Security privatization push fizzle and his poll standings hit near-record lows. In California, Governor Terminator's plans for sweeping changes in state pensions have been shredded by powerful public employee unions. Schwarzenegger's popularity has dropped 20 percentage points as voters have stopped having visions of a new Ronald Reagan and started having nightmares about another out-of-his-depth Jesse Ventura. In Florida, a Republican legislature has rejected the ambitious education reforms of GOP Governor Jeb Bush, including private school vouchers and a proposal to dilute voter-approved limits on class size. What's going on here is not just the waning of another fad -- GOP big-think chic. It could be a belated recognition that, in 50-50 Nation, Republican dreams of transforming America into a free-enterprise beehive might be beyond their powers of political persuasion. "The problem for Republicans is that they hold power, but people are not buying into their proposition of radically transforming the welfare state," says Marshall Wittmann, a former aide to Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) and now a senior fellow at the centrist Democratic Leadership Council. That's not stopping prominent Republican governors and a reelected President from trying to move some sizable boulders, though. "My job is to confront problems, not to pass them on to future Presidents and future generations," President Bush said in a May 14 speech. So he is pushing ahead with uphill efforts to remake Social Security and the judiciary, extend education reform to high schools, expand energy exploration, and overhaul the tax system. Knowing Your Limitations Unfortunately for the GOP, the conservative push for reform has unified normally fractious Dems and spooked most independents. The new reformers lack a sense of their limitations and are thus "tackling some things that have been sacred cows since pastures were created," says Susan MacManus, a University of South Florida political scientist. What's more, the Republicans' timing may be off. "Historically, big things happen as a result of an economic crash, corruption, or some catastrophic event," MacManus adds. Republicans also may be claiming mandates that voters never intended to give them. Schwarzenegger proposed revamping state retirement payments, stiffening teacher tenure rules, and limiting lawmakers' redistricting powers, but "he overreached," says Elizabeth Garrett, a University of Southern California political scientist. Even for the strongest of pols, fundamental change is a tough sell in polarized America. "Special interests are so effective that you can kill almost anything today," says Republican pollster Frank I. Luntz. "The same techniques that elect people are used to defeat their initiatives." That's cold comfort to Democrats, who would rather control the White House than snipe at Bush. But it doesn't offer much hope for the Republican reformers, either. By Richard S. Dunham CAPITAL WRAPUP A Gaping Hole In The Pension Backstop How deep in the hole is the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.? According to new congressional estimates, the PBGC could be facing a bill of more than $120 billion over the next decade to cover pension-fund losses, BusinessWeek has learned. That's far in excess of the $23 billion the government-run insurer of traditional pensions estimates it needs to cover workers and retirees it's already obliged to pay. The PBGC liabilities include the $6.6 billion in unfunded United Airlines pension claims the agency absorbed on May 10. The difference in the numbers: Hill experts figured the market value of PBGC's future liabilities by pricing the risk of default by all companies that offer pensions. That takes into account the chance that today's blue chip could be tomorrow's liability. The new estimates will turn up the heat for new premiums and stricter funding rules to shore up pensions and the PBGC.   CAPITAL WRAPUP A Tale Of Two Supermajorities Consistency is not a congressional specialty. In justifying their plan to ban filibusters on judicial nominations, Republican senators argue that the Founding Fathers did not want Congress to require more than a simple majority unless they specifically mentioned otherwise -- such as passing a treaty or impeaching a President. That hasn't always been the thinking of the GOP. Seven years ago, 49 Republican senators backed a plan to require a supermajority to pass tax increases. Then again, Democrats are hardly models of consistency. Every Dem favors a supermajority for judges -- but only one wanted it for tax hikes.
| | |
 Copyright 2005, by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.Terms of Use | Privacy Notice |
Printer-Friendly Version