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MAY 16, 2005
COVER STORY
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Who Are the Safety Net Swing Voters?

The people Bush needs to get on his side are the folks who approve his overall performance but are leery of his Social Security reform

Roughly one-third of the American public approves of George Bush's job performance and likes the way he has handled Social Security. A larger bloc -- nearly half the population -- is hard-core anti-Bush. These voters dislike the President and oppose his plan to create private Social Security investment accounts. In the middle are the one in six Americans who approve of Bush's overall job performance but are uncomfortable with his approach to Social Security. These are the Safety Net swing voters. Who are these people?


Most of them are white men. They tend to be socially conservative and patriotic. They're more likely to have backed the invasion of Iraq and to attend religious services regularly. They make an average income and are slightly less educated than the average American. The largest group is moderate Republicans, though many are conservative Republicans, Independents, and blue-collar Reagan Democrats.

Here's a numerical snapshot of the Safety Net Swing Voters. The larger the gap, the more of these people in the electorate.
  SAFETY NET SWING VOTERS
GroupBush Job ApprovalBush Soc. Sec. ApprovalThe Gap
White men56%36%20%
High school education46%27%19%
Married53%36%17%
Parents52%32%20%
Union households38%20%18%
Supporter of war in Iraq79%50%29%
 
White Protestant61%39%12%
Evangelical69%46%23%
White Catholic46%29%17%
 
Independent41%22%19%
Republican86%60%26%
Conservative Republican93%68%25%
Moderate/Lib. Republican78%48%30%
 
$50-$75K54%36%18%
$30-$50K43%26%17%
$20-$30K46%27%19%
 
South53%33%20%
West46%28%18%

Source: The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press




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