Click Here to Go Directly to the Story

 
 

Get Four
Free Issues

Subscribe to BW
Customer Service

Current BW Magazine Table of Contents

December 27, 2004 BW Magazine Table of Contents

December 27, 2004 Where to Invest 2005 Table of Contents








DECEMBER 27, 2004 2005 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK -- THE BIG PICTURE

What The Fearless Forecasters See

Get used to single-digit returns, say the 67 stock market strategists we polled for their 2005 market outlook. They anticipate a gain of 6.8% for the Dow Jones industrial average in 2005 and 7% for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. Investing abroad gained favor, with the consensus asset allocation for international stocks jumping to 18%, up from 14% last year. Strategists are listed according to their year-end Dow forecasts, from the most bullish to the most bearish.

SLIDE SHOW: Consensus Asset Allocations, And More ... >

  FEARLESS FORECASTERS
FORECASTER DOW JONES S&P 500 NASDAQ COMPOSITE RUSSELL 2000 ASSET ALLOCATIONS* FAVORITE SECTOR FAVORITE STOCK TREASURY YIELD
Linked to forecaster's comments Mid- year Year- end Mid- year Year- end Mid- year Year- end Mid- year Year- end U.S. stocks % Intl. stocks % U.S. bonds % Cash %   Company name Mid- year Year- end
Peter Trapp
Bifrost Partners
11750 12750 1400 1500 1900 2000 700 800 40 40 0 10 Technology Scor 6 6
Arvind Sachdeva
Victory Capital Mgmt.
10850 12500   1425   2600   790 62 0 34 4 Industrial Cyclicals Newmont Mining 4.85 5.25
Elaine Garzarelli
Garzarelli Capital
  12400   1420         100 0 0 0 Industrial Cyclicals Merrill Lynch   4.5
Sam Stovall
Standard & Poor's
11795 12235 1255 1300 2245 2360     45 15 25 15 Financials RPM Int'l 4.6 5
Mark Elenowitz
TriPoint Capital Advisors
11500 12000 1295 1350 2300 2400 680 710 65 20 10 5 Health Care AXM Pharma 4.75 5
Larry Smith
Third Wave Global Investors
11250 12000 1250 1350 2300 2500 660 725 50 25 15 0 Technology   5 4.75
John J. Regan
Americal Investment Strategies
11009 11901 1253 1383 2345 2760 702 767 70 10 0 5 Technology Dell 4.85 5.4
George Jacobsen
Trevor Stewart Burton & Jacobsen
11350 11800 1220 1275 2300 2400 660 700 80 0 10 10 Industrial Cyclicals DeVry 5.25 5.75
Liz Ann Sonders
Charles Schwab
12500 11800 1400 1320 2425 2275 725 680 50 20 25 5 Energy Cal Dive International 5 5.8
John Clarke
H.C. Wainwright
11235 11796 1248 1311 2253 2388 672 705 40 25 15 10 Technology Multiband 3.97 4.29
Young Chin
Gartmore Global Investments
11194 11754 1221 1246 2169 2191 646 665 30 40 5   Energy Starwood Hotels & Resorts  
Tobias Levkovich
Citigroup Smith Barney
  11700   1225         60 0 35 5 Health Care Carnival Cruise Lines 4.6 4.75
Edward Yardeni
Oak Associates
11000 11700 1250 1300 2300 2400 690 750 65 15 10 5 Technology eBay 4.2 4.5
Gary Tapp
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey
11010 11680 1223 1273 2206 2280 656 688 65 20 10 0 Industrial Cyclicals Aetna 4.6 5
Arthur Hogan
Jefferies
11235 11663 1250 1297 2233 2353 665 690 60 10 20 10 Technology Lions Gate Enterainment 4.53 4.9
Joseph Battipaglia
Ryan Beck
11100 11600 1250 1300     640 660 72 8 5 0 Industrial Cyclicals Books-A-Million 4.5 5.25
Stuart T. Freeman
A.G. Edwards & Sons
11400 11600 1270 1300     670 682 65 10 20 5 Consumer Staples Citigroup 4.75 5
Tim Leach
US Trust
11000 11600 1240 1285 2200 2250 660 680 44 11 20 0 Energy   4.75 5.25
James Wong
Payden & Rygel Investment Mgmt.
11100 11600 1290 1340 2350 2500 680 720 30 20 20 10 Energy Ryland Group 4.5 5
Robert Morris
Lord, Abbett
11000 11550 1250 1301 2200 2301 660 695 75 15 10 0 Industrial Cyclicals Telekom Austria 4.5 4.5
Allan Roness
ASR Corporate Consultants
11150 11505 1220 1255 2300 2450 670 700 60 15 0 15 Technology Encore Acquisition 4.6 4.85
Richard Dickson
Lowry's Reports
11500 11500 1300 1300 2435 2100 675 605 70 30 0 0 Industrial Cyclicals Wyeth  
Gail Dudack
Sungard Institutional Brokerage
11550 11500 1325 1290 2400 2280     60 0 20 20 Energy   4.4 4.9
Vince Gallagher
Needham
11180 11500 1150 1305 2200 2350 680 710 70 10 0 20 Services Bright Horizons Family Solutions 4.75 5.25
Hugh Johnson
First Albany Capital
10940 11500 1230 1300 2180 2300 650 680 100 0 0 0 Consumer Staples Walt Disney 4.1 4.5
David Katz
Matrix Asset Advisors
11260 11500 1267 1295 2360 2400 672 685 70 5 15 10 Technology Citigroup 5.2 5.5
Jeffrey Kleintop
PNC Advisors
11100 11500 1250 1300 2230 2320 660 685 57 13 25 5 Industrial Cyclicals Wellpoint Health Networks 4.8 5
James Paulsen
Wells Capital Management
12300 11500 1375 1325 2500 2350 730 690 40 30 20 0 Technology   5.5 6
Tobin Smith
ChangeWave Research
11200 11500 1260 1280 2340 2380   673 50 30 0 0 Energy Silicon Image 4.9 5.1
Roger DeBard
iGlobal Capital
11600 11490 1250 1224 2275 2223 670 663 40 5 15 35 Financials Merrill Lynch 4.45 4.65
Charles Mayer
Pioneer Investments
10725 11470 1210 1270 2130 2205 680 707 65 10 20 5 Industrial Cyclicals   4.35 4.7
Charlie Crane
Scotsman Capital Management
11200 11450 1260 1280 2175 2250 635 650 90 0 0 10 Consumer Staples Chubb 4.5 4.35
Ivan Gefen
vFinance
11000 11450 1240 1285 2210 2300 650 680 35 20 20 15 Services   4.35 4.5
Harvey Hirschhorn
Bank of America Investment Strategies Group
11000 11350 1260 1300 2275 2350 680 700 53 11 29 3 Industrial Cyclicals   5.15 5.25
Richard Sichel
The Philadelphia Trust Co.
11019 11350 1227 1264 2266 2311     65 0 35 0 Financials Alliant Techsystems 4.5 4.85
Clare Zempel
Zempel Strategic
10925 11350 1200 1300 2175 2275 675 700 50 20 20 10 Health Care Pfizer 4.75 5.5
Jason Trennert
ISI Group
11000 11300 1300 1350 2300 2450 675 710 65 10 10 15 Technology Charles Schwab 4.5 4.5
Christopher Conkey
Evergreen Investment Mgmt.
11000 11250 1250 1275 2200 2250 650 675 50 25 20 5   Asta Funding  
Richard Driehaus
Driehaus Capital Mgmt.
10900 11250 1240 1280 2150 2200 660 700 50 30 0 10 Energy Digital Angel 4.65 4.75
John Leo
Northern Trust Investments
11025 11250 1240 1260 2175 2175 630 660 60 20 13 7 Industrial Cyclicals Caterpillar 4.75 4.5
Barry Hyman
Ehrenkrantz King Nussbaum
11000 11200 1250 1270 2200 2300 660 680 70 0 15 15 Industrial Cyclicals Biogen IDEC 5 5.5
Rod Smyth
Wachovia Securities
11000 11200 1250 1270     660 680 40 25 25 10 Energy   4.5 4.75
Mark Jordahl
U.S. Bancorp Asset Mgmt.
10800 11175 1215 1260 2175 2250 645 660 48 18 28 0 Technology Intel 4.5 4.75
Jack Ablin
Harris Private Bank
11384 11172 1280 1256 2298 2255 688 675 40 50 0 0 Health Care   5.6 6.15
Arnim Holzer
Deutsche Asset Mgmt.
10800 11145 1215 1275 2150 2200 650 660 55 15 20 0 Energy   4.6 5
Alison Deans
Lehman Brothers
  11100   1300       711 26 25 18 0 Energy     5
Asher Plaut
Brill Securities
10950 11100 1470 1510 2250 2410 650 675 70 15 10 5 Health Care Natus Medical 5 5.1
Vincent Sbarra
HPC Capital Mgmt.
10850 11050 1216 1252 2150 2232 583 590 40 5 5 15 Technology Perma-Fix Environmental Services 4.4 4.65
Lawrence G. McMillan
McMillan Analysis
13200 11040 1320 1250 2650 2180 770 655 60 20 10 10 Energy Cameco 5 4.4
Dorsey Farr
Wilmington Trust
11035 11035 1240 1240 2190 2190 655 655 26 18 20 0     4.75 5
Subodh Kumar
CIBC World Markets
11500 11000 1275 1250 2300 2500 625 650 36 31 17 5 Technology Cisco 4.75 5
Tom McManus
Banc of America Securities
10700 11000 1200 1200 2250 2200 650 600 55 0 10 25 Energy Apache 5 5.5
Jim Huguet
Great Companies
10750 10955 1205 1245 2355 2450 683 704 45 35 20 0 Financials American International Group 5.1 5.25
Warren Bagatelle
Loeb Partners
10750 10950 1250 1350 2200 2300 640 650 65 0 10 7 Health Care Pfizer 4.3 4.2
Wendell Perkins
Johnson Asset Mgmt.
10700 10950 1190 1225 2110 2170 634 639 30 40 10 10 Health Care Multimedia Games 4.6 5
C. Kim Goodwin
State Street Research
10500 10900 1200 1250 2150 2210 613 625 40 25 30 5 Consumer Staples Equity Office Properties Trust 4.8 5
William Greiner
UMB Investment Advisors
10800 10900 1250 1265 2200 2250 650 655 50 15 30 5 Industrial Cyclicals Cintas 4.8 4
Sean Taylor
GAM
10100 10750 1050 1250 1850 2300 560 640 25 75 0 0 Services WebZen 4.8 5.4
Jeffrey Knight
Putnam Investments
11200 10640 1235 1160 2160 2055 680 642 30 25 15 0 Energy   4.6 4
Robert H. Stovall
Wood Asset Management
10965 10625 1225 1365 2255 2175 637 628 40 20 15 10 Energy Tiffany  
Daniel Dektar
Smith Breeden Associates
10500 10600 1185 1195 2100 2000 640 645 15 25 15 15     4.6 4.8
David M. Joy
American Express Financial Advisors
10500 10150 1175 1150 2150 2035 625 610 30 40 20 10 Energy   4.75 5.35
Joseph Liro
Stone & McCarthy Research Associates
9650 10100   1150   2250   720 40 25 20 15 Technology Intel  
Barry Ritholtz
Maxim Group
11707 9703 1324 950 2620 1825 765 606 50 25 15 5 Financials Interoil 4.95 5.5
Michael Painchaud
Market Profile Theorems
9200 8800 1035 990 1710 1620 490 450 30 10 10 30 Utilities IMAX 4.6 4.95
Bernie Schaeffer
Schaeffer's Investment Research
9000 8000 950 825 1950 1600 575 550 30 15 15 20 Energy XM Satellite Radio Holdings 4 3.75
ML Global Strategy & Economics
Merrill Lynch
      1205         45 0 45 10 Utilities   3.6 3.85




Data compiled by Brian Hindo, Anne Tergesen, and Suzanne Woolley
 BW MALL   SPONSORED LINKS
Buy a link now!


Back to Top


Media Kit | Special Sections | MarketPlace | Knowledge Centers
McGraw-Hill Cos.