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JULY 26, 2004
Edited by Richard S. Dunham Why The GOP Has A Medicare Headache A year ago, Republican pollster Bill McInturff was ecstatic. A major Medicare drug bill was headed for approval in Congress. And McInturff, along with most analysts, viewed its passage as a huge political plus for President George W. Bush and the GOP. After four decades, he saw the ballyhooed drug benefit as a "transformational" moment that would help Republicans shake the "Mediscare" bugaboo -- that perennial Democratic claim that they were out to wreck the popular health program for the elderly. But the political earth never moved -- at least not the way Bush and the GOP expected. Eight months after the President signed the $400 billion-plus drug law and less than four months before Election Day, the measure is a bust on the hustings. Even the new drug discount card, a money saver for many seniors, has left voters cold. "We gave benefits to millions who didn't have them," says McInturff. But, he adds, "that simple message got lost." What we have here, it seems, is a monumental Republican failure to communicate. According to an Apr. 1-5 Kaiser Family Foundation poll, 39% of those surveyed had an unfavorable view of the new Medicare law, while 28% viewed it positively. And by nearly 2 to 1, seniors had a negative impression of the program. That's bad news for Bush, since GOP strategists believe seniors -- especially elderly white women -- are vital to his reelection chances. Bottom line: a huge advantage to Democratic Presidential hopeful John Kerry. By 52% to 32%, likely voters believe Kerry would do a better job making prescription drugs affordable than Bush, according to a June 20-23 survey by the bipartisan Battleground Poll. What went wrong? First, the law is hard to understand. The complex discount card runs for only 18 months. Beginning in 2006, it will be replaced by a drug insurance program. Other provisions provide government subsidies for insurers to offer new Medicare managed-care plans. "People simply do not have this figured out," says Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin. Grassroots Blitz To make matters worse for the GOP, Bush never took the kind of high-profile victory lap that usually accompanies a big legislative win. Concentrating on the war in Iraq, he made few speeches promoting the law. And with many conservatives troubled by its high cost, he never enjoyed the partisan chorus of support he got on tax cuts. That gave Democrats such as Senator Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) an opening to blast the new law as a giveaway to drug companies and HMOs. And while Kerry has not proposed an alternative plan, he and other Bush critics are targeting a provision of the law that bars the government from negotiating for the lowest prices with drugmakers. A coalition of union and liberal groups called the Take Back Our Medicare Campaign is gearing up a grassroots blitz on the issue. The GOP also hoped that AARP, the powerful seniors' lobby that endorsed the drug bill in 2003, would promote the law. Instead, under intense fire from its members, AARP has focused on the need to cut drug prices. The battle isn't over, to be sure. Bush and his allies in the drug and insurance industries are likely to kick off an advertising counterattack come fall. And as more people learn about the drug card's benefits, some voters may be won over. But at least for now, the GOP finds itself in a familiar spot: playing defense against Democrats' Mediscare charges. By Howard Gleckman CAPITAL WRAPUP An Image Makeover For The GAO The General Accounting Office -- the congressional watchdog agency that has angered partisans over the years with its maverick ways -- exists no more. No, it hasn't been abolished. Instead, Congress has renamed it the Government Accountability Office. The GAO's mission won't change; it still aims to hold officials accountable for the way they spend taxpayers' dollars. But lawmakers are hoping to update the GAO's image from old-fashioned green-eyeshade accountants to sleuths ferreting out waste, fraud, and abuse.   CAPITAL WRAPUP African Americans: Bush Comes In Third Just how unpopular is President Bush among African Americans? He's in last place among black voters, with 9%, behind John Kerry (73%) and Ralph Nader (10%), according to a July 9-30 Gallup Poll. If there's any reason for Republicans to cheer, it's that Nader's hard-left, anti-corporate message is, for now, siphoning liberal urban support from Democrat Kerry. CAPITAL WRAPUP The White House Takes Aim At Crawford's Rep For four years, the President's hometown has been represented in Congress by a Democrat, Chet Edwards. So Bush is pulling out all the stops to replace the centrist Edwards with conservative Republican Arlene Wohlgemuth. Vice-President Cheney raised $300,000 for her in April. Next up: White House political guru Karl Rove is planning a July 29 event, while Edwards is hanging out in Boston with liberals at the Democratic National Convention.
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