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MAY 10, 2004
India: An Election That May Speed Reform It's election season in India, and the politicians are biting their nails. Most pundits had expected that when results of a four-stage parliamentary election are declared on May 13, the ruling National Democratic Alliance -- a coalition of 22 parties led by Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's Bharatiya Janata Party -- would return to power with a slim majority. After all, India's economy is expected to grow a hot 8% this year, its software industry is now a global force, and Vajpayee's bid to resolve the territorial dispute over Kashmir with Pakistan has made him a hero in the region. More and More Votes Yet exit polls taken on the second day of the vote, Apr. 26, suggest that the BJP is having a harder time than expected, and may need more coalition partners to retain control of the 545-seat Parliament. What gives? In India's large and complex political landscape, regional parties are on the rise, taking more and more votes from the pro-Hindu BJP and its rival Congress Party. The regional parties, which represent ethnic-, language-, and caste-based groups, are appealing to rural voters who feel left behind by the boom spurred by India's economic liberalization. "Its benefits have not percolated down to those who have voting clout" -- the 650 million Indians who live in villages, says Ashis Nandy, director of New Delhi's Center for the Study of Developing Societies. While two rounds of voting remain, the betting is that Vajpayee's National Democratic Alliance will beat the Congress Party but win fewer than the 272 parliamentary seats needed to form a government. So Vajpayee may have to seek support from new partners such as the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party of Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state in the north, or the Rashtriya Janata Dal of neighboring Bihar. Members of these parties come from the lower and poorer castes, who make up 70% of the population and have been repressed for centuries by a rigid Hindu social system. Now, after years of affirmative action, these parties are becoming swing factors in the national vote. That may not be a bad thing. The regional parties shun religious ideology, and their electorate is clamoring for local investment in new roads, water, and power. If a narrow victory for the BJP forces it into alliances with secular players, the BJP's reformers rather than its extremists are likely to dominate the agenda. Already, L.K. Advani, Deputy Prime Minister and a BJP hard-liner, is taking a moderate tone, focusing on development rather than Hindu nationalist issues. Local parties, especially in prosperous southern India, are likely to push the development agenda further. "For the first time, the interests of India's national and regional parties are converging," says Subir Gokarn, chief economist of India's top rating agency, Crisil. For example, the Telegu Desam Party of Andhra Pradesh has used its alliance with the BJP to get more resources from New Delhi. Vajpayee's challenge will be to balance local demands with the national agenda. Even if he rewards Cabinet posts to other partners, he's likely to ensure that the key Finance Ministry stays in the BJP'S hands. Vajpayee is determined to privatize more state assets, loosen restrictions on foreign investment, and reform agriculture in a big way. Doing all that -- and holding together a coalition of 20-odd parties -- will be the 79-year-old leader's greatest test yet.  By Manjeet Kripalani in Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh
BW MALL
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