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APRIL 19, 2004
Edited by Richard S. Dunham Do The Dems Have A Shot At The Senate? Right-wing activists are giddy about recent polls showing conservative Representative Patrick J. Toomey surging to within a few points of moderate, pro-choice Senator Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania's Apr. 27 Republican primary. But they aren't the only ones rooting for Toomey to upset the four-term incumbent. Democrats are convinced that their nominee, suburban Philadelphia Representative Joseph M. Hoeffel, would stand a better chance against a hard-right opponent. "Even if Specter wins the primary, he's going to be bruised pretty seriously," gloats Senator Jon S. Corzine (D-N.J.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC). In the political world, it's often better to be lucky than smart. And Democrats are having a run of good fortune that gives them renewed hope of taking back the Senate in November. Yes, Corzine has lined up A-team candidates in key races. But the Dems also have been handed unexpected gifts, including bloody GOP primaries, Republican recruiting snafus, and the surprise retirement of Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R-Colo.). "They've gotten breaks in places that seemed unlikely," says Jennifer E. Duffy, managing editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "You can do the math now where the Democrats could win the majority." Such talk seemed utterly unrealistic at the beginning of the year. Although Democrats need a net gain of just two seats to ensure Senate control, they are defending 19 seats this cycle, vs. 15 for the GOP. Worse still, the retirement of five Southern Democrats gives Republicans an opportunity to pick up seats in a region that George W. Bush swept in 2000. But Dems have gotten a boost from nasty GOP primaries in Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Oklahoma -- and potentially Alaska. Thanks to these slugfests, and their own solid campaigns, polls show centrist Democrats Brad Carson, an Oklahoma congressman, and Inez M. Tenenbaum, education superintendent in South Carolina, beating all the potential GOP candidates in both Republican-leaning states. Enough Cash to Compete Democrats also caught a break when heavily favored Nighthorse Campbell announced on Mar. 3 that he was going to ride off into the sunset. They quickly cleared the field for Attorney General Ken Salazar, their most popular statewide politician. But he could face a wealthy foe in Adolph Coors Co. Chairman Peter H. Coors. Instead of a likely GOP win, Colorado now is wide open. Salazar is not the only strong contender on the Democratic slate. Illinois State Senator Barack Obama convincingly won the Mar. 17 primary. Former Alaska Governor Tony Knowles is given a good shot at ousting unelected Republican Lisa Murkowski, whose brief Senate career has been overshadowed by the fact that her father appointed her to the seat. And these top prospects should have enough cash to compete: The DSCC had $6 million on hand at the end of March. That's only half of what's in GOP coffers, but it's a sharp improvement from February, when the Dems were barely breaking even. For President Bush, a Democratic Senate could stymie his key second-term priorities, such as conservative Supreme Court picks, permanent tax cuts, and private Social Security accounts. No wonder he has been telling aides that he doesn't want a "lonely" victory. By Alexandra Starr Kerry Pitches A Plan With Fewer Promises GOP efforts to label Senator John Kerry as a tax-hiker are driving up his negative ratings. So Kerry is putting fiscal credibility ahead of largesse for his party's base, scaling back some primary-campaign promises to bolster his pledge to cut the deficit in half over four years. In a budget framework released on Apr. 7, Kerry trimmed about $25 billion a year from such programs as universal pre-school, national service, and aid to states. Kerry is now claiming his health plan, once priced at $900 billion over 10 years, will cost just $653 billion. He hopes savings will come from technology and spending constraints on Medicaid and Medicare. To pay for expanded health and education, he would collect more than $400 billion by reversing President Bush's tax cuts for families making more than $200,000. He'd also keep the estate tax but let heirs inherit $4 million tax-free, up from today's $1.5 million. Kerry pledges he will fully fund defense and homeland security. Other programs would face pay-as-you-go rules if they exceeded the rate of inflation. Kerry's new blueprint quickly drew fire from Republicans who insist it still doesn't add up. But the real test isn't the arithmetic -- it's whether independent voters can be convinced that Kerry would be more fiscally responsible. By Howard Gleckman 
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