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DECEMBER 29, 2003
The South: Will The Last Dem Turn Out The Lights? The Washington that Senator John Breaux is leaving is a vastly different place than the capital the Louisiana Democrat arrived in 35 years ago in a rented U-Haul truck. A pragmatic moderate and consummate dealmaker, Breaux has come to feel like a crawfish out of water in the poisonous partisan swamp of Capitol Hill, where, as he put it in announcing his retirement on Dec. 15, "cooperation and legitimate compromise between our political parties [is now] seen as political failure." The landscape awaiting Breaux back home by the bayou has also undergone a radical transformation. The solid Democratic South of the senator's youth has become the heart of the Republican "red zone." And most political analysts predict that the 2004 election will put an exclamation point on the GOP takeover of Dixie that started with Barry Goldwater's 1964 campaign. A Democratic meltdown in the South could doom the party's chances of recapturing the House or Senate and would complicate efforts to win back the White House. Behind Republican hegemony is racial and cultural polarization. Many conservative whites see the Democrats as the party of minorities and urban elites who favor gay marriage, gun control, affirmative action, and abortion rights. That's why a good ol' Republican like Haley Barbour was able to win 80% of the white vote and oust Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove of Mississippi in November. The leftward tilt of the Democratic Presidential field could hasten a second Southern sweep by President Bush. Because the South gained Electoral College clout as a result of the 2000 census, Bush can now count on 128 solid Southern electoral votes -- forcing the Democratic nominee to capture 66% of electors in the rest of the country to prevail. Without the South and Rocky Mountain West, a Democrat must "pull an inside straight" to reach the magic number of 270, says Catholic University political scientist John Kenneth White. COUNTING ON DIXIE. With Bush's big red tide ready to roll, it's no wonder that five of the nine sitting Southern Democratic senators have decided to call it quits. Republicans are heavily favored in South Carolina and Georgia, while the contests in Florida, Louisiana, and North Carolina are wide open. The GOP's Southern comfort could help the party cushion its tenuous 51-to-49 senatorial edge against potential losses in Illinois and Alaska. "The worst-case scenario," boasts GOP strategist Charles Black, "is a plus-three in the South." Dixie voters also could close the door on Democratic attempts to reclaim the House. That's because Republicans may oust up to seven Texas Dems if a harshly partisan redistricting plan survives court challenges. The GOP also is targeting seats in Louisiana and Georgia. In the Presidential race, even Democratic optimists say that among the states of the Old Confederacy, only Arkansas and Florida may be competitive. "The Democrats have to remake themselves in the South," concedes party strategist Donna Brazile. But that won't happen until the dust settles from the likely debacle of '04. With more setbacks inevitable, there's scant hope for centrists to overcome the take-no-prisoners partisanship that drove Breaux to the sidelines. By Richard S. Dunham Thanks, Al -- I Think The surprise Al Gore endorsement gave Howard Dean's campaign for President a push -- but was it in the right direction? A Dec. 11-14 Gallup Poll found that 9% of independents are more likely to vote for Dean now that he has Gore's blessing. But 24% said the ex-Veep's support made them less likely to choose Dean. By Richard S. Dunham   Spooks Spooked By The Dean Team Former CIA officials are dismayed by Dean's national security advisers. The team includes Carter-era CIA Director Stansfield Turner, blamed in Langley for decimating the ranks of seasoned case officers and analysts in favor of spending on technology. Also on board is former Clinton National Security Adviser Anthony Lake, who, the spy crowd charges, ignored the threat of terrorism. By Richard S. Dunham No Slowdown In The Money Race Big political donors are now sending checks to so-called 527 groups, which lurk outside campaign-finance limits. The most successful: the Republican Governors Assn., which has collected $11.8 million so far in 2003, according to Political Money Line, a research group that tracks campaign funds. Citigroup (C ) leads corporate givers to 527s, with $227,580 to the RGA and $85,000 to the Democratic Governors' Assn. The top labor donor, the Service Employee International Union, doled out $560,000. Heading the list of individual givers is philanthropist John A. Harris IV. But his $530,000 will be dwarfed when George Soros' $10 million gift to anti-Bush 527s is reported on Jan. 31. By Richard S. Dunham
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