Economist Firm
(Linked to Comments) | Real GDP
Quarterly % Chg.
2004 annual rate
 | Yrly. % Chg.
2003 Q4 to 2004 Q4
| 2004 Q4 Levels (%)
| Mo. of 1st Fed Rate Hike |
| I | II | III | IV | Real GDP | Operating Profits
$million | CPI | Jobless Rate | 10-yr. Treas. Yield | Federal Funds Rate |
|
| Wayne Angell Angell Economics | 5.8 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 22.5 | 2.1 | 5.8 | 4.50 | 1.50 | Aug 04 |
|
| Chris Low FTN Financial | 5.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 15.0 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 4.60 | 1.00 | Feb 05 |
|
| Ian Shepherdson High Frequency Economics | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 40.0 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 5.50 | 2.50 | May 04 |
|
| David Littmann Comerica Bank | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 13.2 | 2.6 | 5.7 | 5.50 | 1.70 | May 04 |
|
| John Silvia/Mark Vitner Wachovia | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 11.6 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 5.30 | 1.75 | May 04 |
|
| Sung won Sohn Wells Fargo Bank | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 5.2 | 5.75 | 1.25 | Dec 04 |
|
| Michael Englund Action Economics | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 1.6 | 5.9 | 5.10 | 1.50 | Jun 04 |
|
| James Smith Society of Industrial and Office Realtors | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 17.6 | 1.0 | 4.8 | 4.45 | 2.15 | Mar 04 |
|
| Gary Thayer A.G. Edwards | 5.5 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 10.8 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 5.10 | 1.60 | May 04 |
|
| Nariman Behravesh Global Insight | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 9.6 | 1.3 | 5.5 | 5.20 | 1.69 | Jun 04 |
|
| Richard Berner/David Greenlaw Morgan Stanley | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 5.4 | 5.18 | 1.50 | Nov. 04 |
|
| David Lereah National Association of Realtors | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 11.5 | 1.4 | 5.6 | 4.90 | 1.50 | Jun 04 |
|
| Jim Meil/Arun Raha Eaton Corporation | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 15.8 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 4.40 | 1.70 | Jul 04 |
|
| Michael Moran Daiwa Securities America | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 15.0 | 1.3 | 5.7 | 5.10 | 1.50 | Nov 04 |
|
| Constantine Soras Andrew Alexander Wise & Co. | 4.7 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | NA | 2.2 | 5.7 | 5.05 | 2.55 | May 04 |
|
| Joel Prakken/Chris Varvares Macroeconomic Advisers | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 8.8 | 1.2 | 5.5 | 4.70 | 1.00 | Jan 05 |
|
| james c. cooper/kathleen madigan BusinessWeek | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 15.0 | 1.6 | 5.3 | 5.10 | 1.75 | Aug 04 |
|
| Richard Dekaser National City | 4.7 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 5.15 | 2.31 | May 04 |
|
| Stephen Gallagher SG CIB | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 13.5 | 2.0 | 5.6 | 5.25 | 1.75 | Jun 04 |
|
| Ken Mayland ClearView Economics | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 14.3 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 4.96 | 2.03 | Aug 04 |
|
| Lynn Reaser Banc of America Capital Management | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 10.7 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 5.25 | 1.68 | Jun 04 |
|
| Steven Ricchiuto ABN AMRO | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 5.8 | 5.30 | 1.80 | Jun 04 |
|
| John Ryding Bear Stearns | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 5.5 | 5.63 | 3.00 | Mar 04 |
|
| Allen Sinai Decision Economics | 4.7 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 12.5 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 5.31 | 1.63 | Jun 04 |
|
| David Berson Fannie Mae | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 5.6 | 5.00 | 1.92 | Jun 04 |
|
| Robert McGee U.S. Trust | 4.2 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 8.7 | 1.6 | 5.6 | 4.90 | 1.93 | Jun 04 |
|
| Mark Lieberman Washington Mutual | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 14.1 | 1.8 | 5.8 | 5.08 | 1.25 | May 04 |
|
| John Lonski Moody's Investors Service | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 12.0 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.30 | 2.10 | Mar 04 |
|
| Martin Regalia U.S. Chamber of Commerce | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 4.1 | NA | 2.0 | 5.4 | 5.30 | 1.50 | Nov 04 |
|
| Richard Rippe Prudential Equity Group | 5.1 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 10.5 | 1.9 | 5.6 | 5.00 | 1.80 | Jun 04 |
|
| Neal Soss CSFB | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 15.0 | 1.5 | 6.0 | 4.75 | 1.00 | NA |
|
| Michael Carey Credit Lyonnais | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 1.9 | 5.7 | 5.20 | 1.50 | Aug 04 |
|
| Robert Gay Commerzbank Securities | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 9.6 | 1.7 | 5.8 | 4.80 | 1.75 | May 04 |
|
| Daniel Laufenberg American Express Financial Advisors | 4.4 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.00 | 2.20 | Mar 04 |
|
| Joseph Liro Stone & McCarthy Research Associates | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 12.5 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 4.95 | 1.50 | Aug 04 |
|
| Tim O'Neill BMO Financial Group and Harris Bank | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 1.4 | 5.6 | 5.20 | 2.20 | May 04 |
|
| Robert Schnorbus J.D. Power & Associates | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.0 | NA | 1.9 | 5.7 | 5.10 | 2.00 | Jun 04 |
|
| David Seiders National Association of Home Builders | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 9.2 | 1.6 | 5.7 | 5.00 | 1.20 | Nov 04 |
|
| Donald Straszheim Straszheim Global Advisors | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 5.50 | 2.50 | Jan 04 |
|
| David Wyss Standard & Poor's | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 5.5 | 5.00 | 1.40 | Jun 04 |
|
| Diane Swonk Bank One | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 31.0 | 1.7 | 5.8 | 5.40 | 1.50 | Jun 04 |
|
| Stuart Hoffman PNC Financial Services Group | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 11.4 | 2.3 | 5.7 | 5.05 | 1.65 | Jun 04 |
|
| David Resler Nomura Securities International | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 4.95 | 1.00 | Dec 04 |
|
| Robert Shrouds DuPont | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 10.0 | 2.2 | 5.6 | 5.25 | 2.25 | Jun 04 |
|
| Henry Willmore Barclays Capital | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 12.0 | 1.8 | 5.7 | 5.60 | 1.25 | Nov 04 |
|
| Nicholas Perna Perna Associates | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.05 | 2.18 | May 04 |
|
| Mark Zandi Economy.com | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 6.0 | 5.30 | 2.00 | Jun 04 |
|
| Ethan Harris Lehman Brothers | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 5.9 | 4.80 | 1.00 | Jan 05 |
|
| Maury Harris UBS | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 14.3 | 2.0 | 5.7 | 4.90 | 1.50 | Aug 04 |
|
| Kurt Karl Swiss Re | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 9.5 | 1.1 | 5.6 | 5.00 | 1.80 | Jul 04 |
|
| Joel Naroff Naroff Economic Advisors | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 16.5 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 5.55 | 2.60 | May 04 |
|
| Keith Hembre U.S. Bancorp Asset Management | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 5.8 | 4.50 | 1.25 | Dec 04 |
|
| Gail Fosler The Conference Board | 4.5 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 3.4 | Ð5.3 | 2.3 | 5.7 | 5.50 | 2.00 | Mar 04 |
|
| Gene Huang FedEx | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 5.00 | 1.80 | Jun 04 |
|
| William Dunkelberg Nat. Fed. of Ind. Business | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 26.0 | 1.8 | 5.7 | 5.50 | 2.00 | Mar 04 |
|
| Richard YamaroneArgus Research | 2.9 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 20.0 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 5.30 | 1.00 | Mar 05 |
|
| John Pope Investment Economics | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | Ð1.0 | 1.9 | 5.9 | 4.80 | 1.09 | Sep 04 |
|
| Bill Dudley Goldman Sachs | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 1.1 | 6.1 | 3.50 | 1.00 | Jun 05 |
|
| Lynn Michaelis Weyerhaeuser | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 12.5 | 1.9 | 5.8 | 4.70 | 1.75 | Mar 04 |
|
| Ian Morris HSBC | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6.2 | 3.80 | 1.00 | Jul 05 |
|
| CONSENSUS | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 11.7% | 1.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 1.7% |
|
* Before-Tax Corporate Profits with IVA and CCA (NIPA BASIS)
Copyright 2003, Bloomberg L.P.
